Forecast plus today's mortgage rates
Average mortgageInterest rates fell again yesterday. Another similar decline by only the smallest measurable amount leads them to match the all-time low. The current interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan starts at 3.188% (3.188% APR).
There has been a welcome series of small waterfalls since last Tuesday. But that does not necessarily mean that things will continue like this today. It may be good, but that's likely to be determined by US-related COVID-19 messages that pop up during the day.
Find and block current rates. (June 30, 2020)
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 5 year ARM
Fixed FHA for 30 years
FHA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
VA for 30 years
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price quote. See our tariff assumptions here.
• COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Lenders change rates and rules based on COVID-19. For the latest information on the effects of coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
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Market data that affects (or doesn't) today's mortgage rates
Are mortgage rates closer to the markets they traditionally follow? It is too early to be sure. But when you are ready to follow them, things are like that search not exciting for mortgage rates today. Here is the current state this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data compared to approximately the same time yesterday morning was:
The Yield on 10 year Treasuries decreased from 0.64% to 0.62%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates tend to follow these special government bond yields, albeit more recently
Major stock indices were mixed. (Neutral for mortgage Prices.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers the prices of these stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower
Oil prices rose from $ 38.60 to $ 38.98 a barrel (Neutral for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activities.)
Gold prices nudged $ 1,781 an ounce from $ 1,784. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) In general, it is better for interest rates if gold goes up, and worse if gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut interest rates.
CNN Business Fear & Greed Index increased from 48 out of 100 possible points to 49. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they leave the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of a few dollars in the price of gold or a question of the cent in the price of oil is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, we only count significant differences in mortgage rates as good or bad.
Important notes on today's mortgage rates
Don't be surprised if Thursday's Freddie Mac tariff reports and ours don't match exactly. First, the two measure different things: weekly and daily averages. But Freddie usually only collects data on Mondays and Tuesdays a week. And they are often out of date by the day of publication. So you can rely on Freddie's accuracy over time, but not necessarily every day or week.
Of course, few purchases or refinancing qualify for the lowest interest rates found in some media and lender ads. These are usually only available to people with excellent credit scores, high down payments and solid finances (so-called top tier borrowers). And even then, the state you are buying in can affect your rate.
Before blocking, however, anyone who buys or refinances can lose if interest rates rise, or win if interest rates fall.
When the movements are very small, many lenders don't bother to change their price lists. Instead, you may have to pay a little more or less to get compensation.
Overall, we still think it is possible that the Federal Reserve will cut rates further over time. However, there was a lot going on here before the green shoots of economic recovery became apparent. Now there is more. And, as we saw earlier, the Fed can only influence some of the forces that sometimes affect mortgage rates. So nothing is insured.
Read “Exceptionally, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why you want to examine the key details of this organization's current, temporary role in the mortgage market.
Advice on the rate lock
My recommendation reflects the success of the Fed's measures so far. I personally suggest:
LOCK when you approach 7 Days
LOCK when you approach fifteen Days
HOVER when you approach 30th Days
HOVER when you approach 45 Days
HOVER when you approach 60 Days
But it's entirely up to you.
The Fed could cut rates further in the coming weeks, although this is far from certain. (Read on for the economists' forecasts.) And you can expect bad spots as they go up.
It is equally important that the corona virus has created massive insecurity – and disruptions that can defy all human efforts in the short term, including perhaps that of the Fed. Locking or floating is therefore a game of chance in both cases.
What economists expect from mortgage rates
This month is eeconomic reports The expectations of many economists may have changed. Pretty much everyone was shocked by the recent, much better than expected employment and retail sales numbers. However, many were disillusioned with the Federal Reserve's worrying forecasts for economic growth and employment on June 10.
It is too early to say that these have changed the economic landscape. However, read the following knowing that at least one of the cited forecasts was made long before any of these events.
Looks good … for most
On May 21, Realtor.com® chief economist Danielle Hale predicted low mortgage rates for the foreseeable future. Of course, it is unlikely that she thought there would be a continuous straight line that only went down. Some climbs on the way are almost inevitable.
"We expect mortgage rates to stay low and possibly go down," Hale said on Realtor.com. "We will flirt with the 3% threshold for a while before falling below it."
And she was already right. But of course not all experts share Hale's rosy view, at least in the medium term. In its own publication, Realtor.com, it recently said interest rates could soon rise below the current 3% level.
The following table shows forecasts from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Mortgage rate forecasts for 2020
The only function of the economic forecast is to make astrology appear respectable. – John Kenneth Galbraith, Harvard economist
Galbraith made clear statements about the economists' forecasts. But there is nothing wrong with taking them into account, seasoned appropriately with a pinch of salt. Who else will we ask when we make financial plans?
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the MBA each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and predicting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their latest forecasts for the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage each quarter (Q1, Q2 …) in 2020. All (including Freddies, which is now a quarterly report) were released in mid-May.
Suddenly Fannie Mae's optimism is the runaway. And nobody expects a quarterly average below the 3.0% mark this year.
What should you conclude from this? That nobody is sure about much, but that wild optimism about the direction of mortgage rates could be out of place.
The gap between the forecasts is real and widening as the forecasters look ahead. Fannie now expects this rate to average 2.9% next year, while Freddie expects 3.2% over the same period. And the MBA assumes that it will return to 3.5% in the last half of 2021. The MBA assumes that it will average 3.7% in 2022. You pay your money …
Nevertheless, all of these forecasts show significantly lower rates this year and next year than in 2019 when, according to Freddie Mac's archives, it averaged 3.94%.
And never forget that last year had the fourth lowest mortgage rates since records started. Better yet, this year could hit an all-time low.
Mortgages are more difficult to obtain
The mortgage market is currently very chaotic. And some lenders offer significantly lower interest rates than others. If you borrow large amounts, such differences can add up to several thousand dollars within a few years.
Worse, many have restricted their loans. You may find it more difficult to find a payout refinance, an investment property loan, a jumbo loan, or a mortgage if your credit rating is compromised.
All of this makes it even more important than usual that you purchase your mortgage on a large scale and compare offers from several lenders.
This credit crunch in numbers
Current studies by Fannie Mae and the MBA show that this tightening is real. The MBA's May Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) report was published to quantify the extent June 9 showed tThe index fell less sharply than in April: by 3.1%. However, it is important to recognize that any decline represents a tightening of lenders' credit standards. So it may not get worse as quickly as it used to, but it will still get a little worse.
However, some see some light in this darkness. In mid-May, when the National Mortgage Professional magazine held an expert panel discussion on mortgages for people with "past credit problems such as foreclosures, bankruptcy, late payments, or other isolated credit problems," there were knowledgeable attendees who expected the activity to revive soon.
Mortgage rates traditionally improve (decrease) the worse the economic outlook is. Where the economy is now and where it could go is relevant to rate observers.
And despite these recent, better-than-expected reports, there is unfortunately a lot of potentially bad news that could adversely affect the US economy and the global economy.
For example, The Business Roundtable CEO's business outlook survey for the current quarter was released yesterday. CEOs who responded were more pessimistic on many indicators than since 2009. And few expected a quick recovery as “most expect business conditions to recover by the end of 2021. However, 27% do not expect their companies to recover until 2021, ”says the survey report.
In the meantime, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its growth forecasts for this year last Wednesday. And the global economy is expected to shrink by 4.9%, much worse than the 3% estimate in April.
The IMF's expectations of the US economy are even worse. The latest forecast for this assumes an expected decline of 8%. Is it a consolation that the eurozone countries with negative growth north of 10% will do even worse?
COVID-19 is still a major threat
Last Friday we cited the New York Times for the increase in the number of new cases in America in the past 14 days. It was a grim increase of + 53%. But by yesterday that had grown to a deeply depressing + 80%. In California alone, the incidence of new cases has increased by 45% within a week.
Those who had hoped that the relative containment of the coronavirus in the northeast would see a continued decline in new infections across the country were disappointed. The Times reported an increasing trend of infection rates in 35 states in the past two weeks this morning.
The increases were small in places like Alaska, Hawaii and Montana. But very steep in Arizona, Texas, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi and a few others.
Deaths after infection
Some console themselves with the decline in the number of new COVID-19 deaths in the United States. And the New York Times figure for this measure earlier this morning has been much more encouraging at -23% over the past 14 days.
However, that number is worse than last Friday's -30% or yesterday's -26%. So this curve seems to flatten out badly. And scientists warn that mortality always lags behind infections.
In fact, Nicholas G. Reich, associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, told the Washington Post last Wednesday: "As long as there is a reasonable amount of testing, if there is an increase in covid-19 infections, then we will probably see that in the confirmed case data before we see it in the death data. "
Reich continued that he expected "… in many states where there is an increase in the number of deaths next month in cases like Texas, California, Florida and others, although the deaths have increased." either constant or stable have been declining in recent weeks. "
Although the COVID-19 news dominates in general as well as in the markets, there is still room for other concerns. And trade concerns are currently heightened.
Tensions between Washington DC and Beijing are currently more tense than they have been for several years. This was not supported by China's yesterday adoption of a potentially suppressive new Hong Kong security law in violation of an international agreement.
In the meantime, on June 18, the United States fell out with France, Britain, Italy and Spain. These nations want to close some tax loopholes that certain American technology companies are using to reduce the profits they make in those countries, which the government rejects.
These disputes with China and European countries inevitably open up the possibility of a new trade war, perhaps on two fronts.
The most recent economic data looked good. For example, recent employment and retail sales were far better than most economists expected. But you have to see them in their wider context.
First, they follow catastrophic lows. They expect record profits after record losses. Second, the pandemic is far from over. Some states are still seeing an alarming number of new cases and deaths.
Good news is more than welcome, but it can mask the devastation caused by COVID-19 in the economy.
Some concerns that remain are:
We are currently officially in recession
Unemployment is expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Over the past two Thursdays, new weekly unemployment claims have actually been worse than expected
On June 26, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow ™ resource set its forecast for real GDP growth for the current quarter at -39.5% (yes, that's a minus). However, it should be noted that the number has dropped significantly compared to previous measurements
Ön June 1stThe Congressional Budget Office reduced its expectations for US growth between 2020 and 2030. Compared to its forecast in January, the CBO now expects America to miss out on growth of $ 7.9 trillion in this decade
As we have been saying for some time, not only are we not out of the forest yet, we may not have any idea where their limits are.
Exactly this assessment was confirmed last Wednesday by IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, who said: “We are definitely not out of the woods. This is a crisis like no other and will recover like no other. "
What form will a recession take?
Economists argue about the shape (if you visualize it in a graph) that the recession could take.
For a while, a V-shaped (sharp plunge and sharp recovery) was the favorite. And it's still for some. In fact, they can clean themselves up well according to the latest employment and retail reports.
However, other shapes are also available. Some therefore think a W is more likely, especially if a second wave of coronavirus infections occurs after the early end of the lock. A “Nike Swoosh” (based on the company's famous logo) is becoming increasingly popular. This is a sharp decline followed by a gradual recovery. Recently an inverted square root symbol (√ but backwards) has gained popularity.
But on May 29, the New York Times asked everyone, "Swooshes and Vs. The future of the economy is a question mark. "What it meant to stop arguing because nobody has a clue.
Markets don't seem to be linked to reality – do they?
June 16The controversial, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote this for the New York Times:
What do these investors think? I don't think they think – not really. Financial reporting conventions more or less require articles about market action to attribute rationality to investors, so stock movements are attributed to optimism about the economic recovery or something else. However, the reality is that they are mostly young men, many of whom have sports betting backgrounds and bought the stocks and are optimistic because they have made money so far.
On June 14, CNN Business reported that only an online broker, TD Ameritrade, had done so opened 608,000 new accounts in the first quarter of this year. That was more than twice as much as in the previous quarter. Some, like Krugman, see this in response to the ban, as inexperienced and unknown amateur investors gather in a high-risk environment.
Economic reports this week
Since Independence Day falls on a Saturday, Friday is a public holiday. (And this daily report will not be published.) This means that the monthly report on the employment situation – probably the most important economic report at the moment – will be published on Thursday.
Markets have shaken off negative data lately, but they're in a strange mood right now. And we have to wait and see how they react on Thursday.
Predictions are important
Typically, any economic report can move the markets as long as it contains news that is shockingly good or devastatingly bad – provided that the news is unexpected.
This is because markets tend to evaluate analyst consensus forecasts (hereinafter we use those reported by MarketWatch) before the reports are released. Therefore, it is usually the difference between the numbers actually reported and the forecast that has the greatest effect.
And this means that even an extreme difference between the actual values of the previous reporting period and this can have a slight immediate impact, provided that this difference is expected and has been taken into account in advance.
This week's calendar
T.His week's calendar of major domestic economic reports includes:
Monday: May Pending home sales index (actually + 44.3%; no forecast)
Tuesday: June Consumer confidence index (actual 98.1 index points; forecast 90.8)
Wednesday: June ISM * manufacturing index (Forecast 50.6%) and May Construction expenditure (Forecast + 0.6%). Plus publication of the Minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC **
Thursday: June Employment report, including non-agricultural pay slips (Forecast +3.5 million), Unemployment rate (Forecast 12.4%) and average hourly wage (Forecast -1.0%).
Friday: nothing – public holiday. And no issue of "Mortgage Rates Today" from The Mortgage Reports
* ISM is the institute for supply management
** FOMC is the Federal Open Market Committee, the body of the Federal Reserve that sets the organization's interest rates – and influences most others. The minutes of its meetings are important reading for serious investors
Rate lock recommendation
The basis for my suggestion
I suggest that you Lock if you are less than 15 days after closing. But let's look at a personal assessment of a risk assessment here: do the dangers outweigh the possible rewards?
At the moment, the Fed seems to be mostly on top of things (although recent rises have shown the limits of its power). And I think it will probably stay that way, at least in the medium term.
However, this does not mean that there will be no disturbances on the way. It is quite possible that mortgage rates will rise in times when not all of them can be controlled by the Fed.
So I suggest a 15-day cutoff. In my opinion, this optimizes your chances of driving uphill and taking advantage of falls. But it's really just a personal point of view.
Only you can choose
And of course, financially conservative borrowers may want to block immediately, almost regardless of when they will close. After all, current mortgage rates are at record lows, and a lot is secured.
On the other hand, risk takers might prefer to wait their time and take a chance of falling in the future. But only you can decide which risk you feel personally comfortable with.
If you are still floating, stay alert until you lock. Make sure your lender is ready to act as soon as you press the button. And keep an eye on mortgage rates.
When should you block anyway?
You may still want to lock your loan if you buy a house and have a higher debt-to-income ratio than most others. In fact, you should tend to lock because rate hikes could void your mortgage approval. Refinancing is less critical and you may be able to play and hover.
If your degree is weeks or months away, the decision to lock or float becomes complicated. If you know interest rates are going up, of course you want to lock yourself in as soon as possible. However, the longer your lock is, the higher your upfront costs will be. On the other hand, if a higher interest rate would wipe out your mortgage approval, you probably want to lock yourself in, even if it costs more.
If you're still floating, stay in close contact with your lender.
Up until last week, in this daily article, we provided information about the additional help that borrowers can receive during the pandemic as they near the end.
You can still access all of this information and more in a new, standalone article:
What causes interest rates to rise and fall?
In normal times (not now), mortgage rates depend heavily on investor expectations. Good economic news tends to be bad for interest rates as an active economy raises concerns about inflation. Inflation causes fixed income assets like bonds to lose value and their yields (another way of saying interest rates) to rise.
For example, suppose you bought a $ 1,000 bond two years ago and paid 5% interest ($ 50) each year. (This is called the "Coupon Rate" or "Par Rate" because you paid $ 1,000 for a $ 1,000 bond and because the interest rate is the rate shown on the bond – 5% in this case).
Your interest rate: $ 50 APR / $ 1,000 = 5.0%
When interest rates fall
That's a pretty good rate today, so many investors want to buy it from you. You can sell your $ 1,000 bond for $ 1,200. The buyer receives the same $ 50 a year in interest you received. It's still 5% of the $ 1,000 coupon. However, since he paid more for the bond, his return is lower.
Your buyer's interest rate: $ 50 APR / $ 1,200 = 4.2%
The buyer receives an interest rate or a return of only 4.2%. And that's why interest rates go down as bond demand increases and bond prices rise.
When interest rates go up
However, as the economy warms up, inflation potential makes bonds less attractive. When fewer people want to buy bonds, their prices fall and then interest rates rise.
Imagine that you have your $ 1,000 bond but cannot sell it for $ 1,000 because unemployment has dropped and stock prices are rising. You'll end up with $ 700. The buyer receives the same $ 50 a year in interest, but the return looks like this:
$ 50 APR / $ 700 = 7.1%
The buyer's interest rate is now just over 7%. Interest rates and returns are not mysterious. You calculate them with simple math.
Mortgage Interest FAQ
What are today's mortgage rates?
The average mortgage rate today is only 3.125% (3.125% APR) for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate loan. Of course, your own interest rate will likely be higher or lower depending on factors such as your down payment, credit rating, type of loan and more.
Are mortgage rates rising or falling?
Mortgage rates have been extremely volatile recently due to the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy. Interest rates fell recently when the Fed announced generally low interest rates for the next two years. However, interest rates could rise slightly if mortgage applications increased again or if the economy started to pick up again.
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We determine an average rate and an annual interest rate for each loan type that should be shown in our chart. Since we calculate a number of rates, you get a better idea of what you could find on the market. We also calculate the interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.
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