Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates paused yesterday as they remained stable. But they remain at their highest level since April. Yet previous generations would not have believed that interest rates could possibly get as low as they are today.
First thing this morning Mortgage rates seemed unchanged or barely changed today. But the markets are too volatile to be sure.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Of course, mortgage rates will drop briefly from time to time. And they can fall permanently. Possible, but not likely. Because, in my opinion, higher rates in the coming weeks and months are more than likely.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield unchanged at 1.63%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were higher after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices rose from $ 83.38 a barrel to $ 83.41. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices decreased from $ 1,810 an ounce to $ 1,795. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – climbed from 70 from 100 to 74. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or be just a few inches from the neutral line. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (10/26/2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the bulk of daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time. When daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Today and soon
Yesterday I identified the three main drivers of higher mortgage rates. Read the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.
All of these drivers are related and share the common ancestor of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the pandemic subsides and the economic recovery gains momentum, higher mortgage rates are very likely.
But all is not going smoothly for this recovery. And the biggest waves are created by supply chain problems.
We are learning that once supply chains are broken (as they were through the pandemic), supply chains are difficult to fix. For example, this morning's Guardian reported:
According to a survey, the mood among German exporters has plummeted. The Ifo Institute's export expectations index fell in October from 20.5 points in September to 13.0 points, the lowest value since February. According to the institute, delivery problems with materials used to manufacture German goods (such as chips) affect exports.
– The Guardian, "German Exports Affected by Bottlenecks … – Business", October 26, 2021
And of course there are difficulties in the vicinity. Dozens of container ships are anchored in front of the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach alone, waiting for unloading points. And yesterday, Goldman Sachs estimated the value of the cargo aboard those ships at $ 24 billion. The bank also suggested that these issues persist through at least mid-2022, according to CNN Business.
Effects on Mortgage Rates
Obviously, supply chain issues are slowing economic recovery both domestically and globally. But so far they haven't undermined it. We will receive more information when the first estimate of our gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2021 is published on Thursday.
As long as supply chain problems slow the recovery only moderately, mortgage rates should continue to rise. However, if these problems continue to the point where they reverse this recovery, they could lead to a decline in interest rates. We'll have to wait and see how that turns out.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become clearer since September.
Freddies Oct 21 Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points), high compared to 3.05% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking to the future, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and Freddies were published on October 15th and the MBAs on October 18th.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.