Mortgage and refinancing charges right now, October 19, 2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose noticeably yesterday. And they are now at their highest level since June. Don't forget, however, that they are still exceptionally low by historical standards.

First, the markets indicated Mortgage rates remain stable today or are just a few inches from the neutral line. But that could change during the day.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 19, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*

Conventional 30 years
+ 0.02%

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
+ 0.01%

Conventional 20 years old
+ 0.05%

Conventionally fixed for 10 years
+ 0.03%

30 years permanent FHA
+ 0.02%

Fixed FTA for 15 years
+ 0.01%

+ 0.03%

30 years of permanent VA
+ 0.06%

15 years fixed VA

5/1 ARM-VA
+ 0.03%

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 19, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

We had a few good days on mortgage rates last week. But the gains they made were more than wiped out by the gains last Friday and yesterday. And I suspect this is the pattern we'll see in the months ahead: a rising trend, punctuated by occasional and brief declines.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

the 10 year Treasury note yield shut down from 1.62% to 1.61%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationship
Oil prices fell to $ 82.23 from $ 83.39 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices rose to $ 1,777 $ 1,768 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Indexincreased from 53 to 63 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged today or hardly move. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 19, 2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today and so forth

Yesterday I updated the Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts table (below). It shows the opinions of the expert teams from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). And they predict what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming quarters.

I'm a little surprised that Fannie and the MBA teams expect the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rates to rise little for the remainder of 2021. Both assume that these interest rates will average 3.1% in the current quarter – a little more than 10 weeks of that. Compare that to Freddie's weekly report, which says 30-year-old FRMs averaged 3.05% in the seven days that ended October 14.

Yes, Fannie and the MBA both agree that these rates will go up. But not much. And Freddie is just a little less optimistic. She expects the same rate to average 3.2% this quarter.

All three expect an increase in the first three quarters of 2022. However, they diverge over their height. Fannie expects it to average 3.3% in the third quarter, while Freddie expects that number to be 3.6% and the MBA is 3.7%.


I can't tell you how much more believable the opinions of these experts are than mine. There are whole teams of specialists who work full-time and use sophisticated computer models. And I'm just … well, me.

That won't stop me from dropping my two cents though. Of course, Fannie, Freddie, and the MBA may be right. But I look at the imminent "tapering" of the Federal Reserve of its active support for low mortgage rates, stubbornly high inflation rates, and falling rates of new infections for COVID-19. And I question the optimism of these experts.

In the absence of economic disaster, I shouldn't be surprised if those average mortgage rates ended up well above 3.1% or 3.2% this year. And were about 4% later the next year. Fortunately, no one will remember if I'm wrong. But my crowing won't be stopped if I'm right.

For more information on the current impact on mortgage rates, see the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.


The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.

However, as of April, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. More recently, we've had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately we have mainly seen increases since the beginning of September.

Freddies Oct 14 Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.05% (with 0.7 fees and points), high from 2.99% the previous week. Freddie chief economist Sam Khater said in a statement that day:

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has soared to its highest level since April. With inflationary pressures building due to the ongoing pandemic and tightening of monetary policy (the Fed tightening), we expect rates to continue to rise slightly.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and Freddies were published on October 15th and the MBAs on October 18th.

Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
Q3 / 22

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac


However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.

All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Confirm your new plan (October 19, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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