Mortgage

Mortgage and refinancing charges right now, 12/28/2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday and only increased slightly. Overall, they are certainly higher than in summer. But the changes in recent months have been subdued.

Mortgage rates are likely to be unchanged or hardly changed today. But we're all used to seeing the markets change direction during the day.

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Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*
change

Conventional 30 years
3,355%
3,377%
-0.02%

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
2,528%
2,563%
+ 0.04%

Conventional 20 years old
3.137%
3,167%
Unchanged

Conventionally fixed for 10 years
2,655%
2,722%
+ 0.02%

30 years permanent FHA
3,232%
3,945%
+ 0.01%

Fixed FTA for 15 years
2,601%
3,247%
+ 0.01%

5/1 ARM FHA
2.46%
3.224%
+ 0.04%

30 years of permanent VA
3,029%
3.219%
+ 0.03%

15 years fixed VA
2,896%
3,244%
-0.01%

5/1 ARM-VA
2.5%
2,533%
Unchanged

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your price can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

Many investors continue to shake their shoulders at the threats posed by Omicron, the new variant of COVID-19. And they might still turn out to be correct. But I expected a lot more caution from them, at least until we're sure how detrimental this could be to the economy.

So far I have been wrong with this expectation. But I still think attitudes could change, which could lead to lower mortgage rates. Read more about this below.

In any case, my personal rate lock recommendations remain for the time being:

HOVER when close in 7th DaysHOVER when close in fifteen DaysHOVER when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days

> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday, were:

the 10 year Treasury note yield decreased from 1.48% to 1.46%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices rose from $ 73.69 a barrel to $ 76.07. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity Gold prices increased from $ 1,811 to $ 1,816. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, prices are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – slightly increased: from 56 from 100 to 57. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won't hit its old highs until things settle down.

Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates could stay the same today or be just inches from the neutral line. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find your lowest plan. Start here (29.12.2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top borrowers (with great credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price movements – though they all follow the broader trend over time when daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and keep their price lists the same for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

We often emphasize the close relationship between mortgage rates and 10 year Treasury note returns. But the last few days of business have shown that the relationship is far from perfect. Government bond yields have dropped inches while they haven't.

Of course, I still hope that mortgage rates will catch up. But that is far from certain. Like much else, especially the Omicron threat.

Omicron

Many markets pretend that the new variant does not pose a threat to the economy. All major US stock indices were up yesterday, with almost all expected to end the year 20% higher than at the beginning of the year.

This may be due in part to the "Santa Claus Rally," a common occurrence at the end of many years when stock prices are rising. As CNN Business noted this morning:

Wall Street may have lost its belief in Santa Claus (sorry to our readers under 10). But it believes in the so-called "Santa Claus rally".

– CNN Business, Before the Bell e-newsletter, December 28, 2021

Economic impact

But in the past 24 hours there has been plenty of evidence of the economic damage Omicron is already doing:

China has added hundreds of thousands more people to the lockdown in the city of Xi'an, where more than 13 million people are already subject to strict stay home guidelines days a week; Delhi, India has introduced near-lockdown conditions, and Malaysia has mass New Year celebrations forbidden

And they're on top of a heap of economically damaging measures in countless countries that were in place before yesterday morning.

It's true that Omicron typically causes fewer hospital admissions and fewer deaths per thousand infections than previous variants. And the symptoms are often very mild. But it spreads much faster than these other variants, creating multiples of new cases every day.

And some virus hotspots are already seeing worrying occupancy in intensive care beds. For example, in England, which is weeks ahead of us in its Omicron wave, hospital admissions related to COVID-19 have increased 74% in a week and are now at their highest level since February.

Those who had hoped Omicron would turn out to be a toothless virus may reconsider their positions.

What that means for mortgage rates

If markets continue to ignore Omicron's economic threat, mortgage rates are likely to keep rising. But when they are finally forced to acknowledge the danger, mortgage rates should come down.

I assume the latter will happen. But heaven knows when.

Recently

The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows last year.

The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7, when 30-year fixed-rate mortgages stood at 2.65%.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.

Freddies 23rd of December Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.05% (with 0.7 fees and points), Low compared to 3.12% the previous week. But that won't account for all of this week's hikes.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on December 20th and the MBAs on December 21st.

Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another of these until January. And his numbers are already looking stale.

ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%

However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.

And none of these forecasters suspected that Omicron could completely change the models on which they are based.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to mortgages and refinancing with the most vanilla flavor.

But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, whatever type of mortgage you want, you should make extensive comparisons. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Real savings can be achieved when looking for your mortgage. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Show me today's prices (December 29, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an advertisement for the products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the policies or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parents or affiliates.

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