Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
The bond markets were closed yesterday. But average mortgage rates rose last Friday. And with that they were at their highest level since spring. Yet they remain incredibly low by historical standards.
So far this morning's markets are pointing to it Mortgage rates could stay stable today or just inches on either side of the neutral line. However, the Job Vacancies and Work Turnover (JOLTS) report is due at 10 a.m. (ET) and this may change the outlook.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 12, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 12, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Last Friday's report of bad jobs was sobering for investors. But not enough to stop them from driving mortgage rates up after the announcement.
And if those employment numbers are not enough to contain the rise in these rates, you might expect them to keep rising. That's my point of view. And while days and extended periods of falls are almost inevitable, my guess is that the overall trend is likely to continue.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time last Friday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield held constant at 1.60%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were mixed shortly after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices climbed to $ 80.81 from $ 79.62 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices fell from $ 1,759 $ 1,776 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – from 36. edged to 38 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to be unchanged or hardly changed today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 12, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
If ever there is consensus between economists and Wall Street analysts, now it seems that one is emerging. And it's about the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will pursue its plans to withdraw its support for low mortgage rates on November 3rd.
For the past 18 months, the Fed has been buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a rate of $ 40 billion a month as part of its cheap monetary policy. These MBSs are the bonds that largely determine mortgage rates. And that action kept mortgage rates artificially low.
But it has been signaling for some time that it will likely "shorten" (settle) these purchases from November 3rd. December. But most now seem to believe that the date will likely remain in early November. Here's yesterday's CNBC recording:
However, the weaker employment report did little to allay investor concerns that the Fed will soon attempt to withdraw its bond-buying program. Employment data is an indicator used by the central bank to determine its schedule for tightening monetary policy. In fact, after the report was released, the 10-year yield surged above 1.6%, its highest level since June 4th.
Other threats to low mortgage rates
The Fed isn't the only force currently driving mortgage rates high. In general, the better the economy is doing, the higher these rates are.
And U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is currently growing at one of the fastest rates in several decades. However, everything is not easy. In fact, Goldman Sachs said over the weekend that the economy will grow 5.6% in 2021, up from the company's last estimate of 5.7%. And it forecasts growth of 4% for the next year, after 4.4%.
Of course, these numbers are recovering from extreme pandemic lows. But also mortgage interest. And I see little reason to believe that regardless of the Fed, these rates will not continue to rise, even if GDP growth slows down a bit.
For more details on the Fed's plans and other influences on mortgage rates, see the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, as of April, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. More recently, we've had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately September brought some strong climbs.
Freddies Oct 7 Report gives the weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages 2.99% (with 0.7 fees and points), Low compared to 3.01% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs updated on September 22nd. But Freddies were last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon, or pretty soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do. Or maybe Fannie thinks the tapering will have little effect.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (October 12, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.