Mortgage

Mortgage and refinancing charges at the moment, October 29, 2020

Today's mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. And traditional loans today start at 3.125% (3.125% APR) for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.

Each of the consecutive falls we've seen this week has been humble. But they are starting to add up.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (Oct 29, 2020)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
Mortgage rates
APR *
change
Conventional 30 years fixed
3.125%.
3.125%.
-0.06%
Conventional 15 years fixed
3%.
3%.
Unchanged
Conventional 5-year ARM
3%.
2,743%.
Unchanged
Fixed FTA for 30 years
2.25%.
3.226%.
Unchanged
Fixed FTA for 15 years
2.25%.
3.191%.
Unchanged
5 years ARM FHA
2.5%.
3,239%.
Unchanged
30 years permanent VA
3.063%.
3,242%.
Unchanged
15 years fixed VA
2.25%.
2.571%.
Unchanged
5 years ARM VA
2.5%.
2,419%.
Unchanged

Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (Oct 29, 2020)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

For the reasons in “Are Mortgage and Refinance Rates Rising or Falling?” (Below) I stand by my view that mortgage rates are likely to continue to fall, if slowly and uncertainly. And that these falls are interrupted by occasional, short and modest climbs – even today.

So my personal recommendations remain:

LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysHOVER when you approach 30th DaysHOVER when you approach 45 DaysHOVER when you approach 60 Days

But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

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Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here is the current status at 9:50 a.m. (ET) this morning. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:

The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 0.75% to 0.78%. (Bad for mortgage rates.More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were mixed when opened. (Neutral for mortgage Prices.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite is true when the indices are lower. Oil prices fell from $ 37.45 a barrel to $ 35.01. (Good for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices fell from $ 1,881 an ounce to $ 1,865. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates.

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of ​​what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. Today they are looking worse for mortgage rates.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (Oct 29, 2020)

Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you need to know:

The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. So expect both short-term increases and decreases. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is going on, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest cards on the same purchases. However, some types of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refinancing are currently significantly higher after a change in regulations

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today

Yesterday we quoted Robert J. Shiller, Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale, who wrote in the New York Times on October 23 about growing "fears of a major market crash."

Michael Schumacher of Wells Fargo Securities also made his statement yesterday. "When you think about the US election where Covid is worsening all sorts of other news (and) over the next few weeks, this could be a pretty scary time," he told CN Street.

GDP report this morning

But (again) yesterday we wondered if this morning's gross domestic product (GDP) figures could be captured by investors desperate for good news.

These numbers were forecast to be excellent (+ 33% on an annual basis, according to MarketWatch) – though nowhere near enough to regain the ground lost in the first half of the year. And they actually reached a record level of + 33.1%, which corresponds to + 7.4% compared to the previous quarter.

However, these numbers refer to a very different time (July-September) when COVID-19 declined and the economy recovered. And now the opposite is true. Could investors still follow their latest pattern of shaking off bad news and hype good news?

Now we know. The GDP news was enough to slow the recent decline in equity markets (the Dow fell more than 900 points yesterday). However, it wasn't enough to keep the Dow from dropping 70 points 18 minutes after it opened.

All of this darkness is good news for those who want lower mortgage rates. But it's awful for everyone else.

Recently

The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. A new all-time low was set in early August, and we have grown close since then. In fact, Freddie Mac said a new low had been reached in each of the weeks ending October 15 and 22. And it could well be that there is a third record week in a row this morning.

But not every mortgage expert agrees with Freddie's figures. In particular, Freddies refers to buying mortgages alone and ignoring refinancing. And if you average over both, the rates are higher than the all-time low.

Mortgage Forecast Experts

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the final quarter of 2020 (Q4 / 20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21 and Q3 / 21).

Notice that fannies (published October 19) and the MBA (October 21) are updated monthly. However, Freddies are now released quarterly. The latest was released on October 14th.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:

ForecasterQ4 / 20Q1 / 21Q2 / 21Q3 / 21Fannie Mae 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Freddie Mac 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% MBA 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2%

So the predictions vary considerably. You pay your money …

Find your lowest price today

The pandemic, along with a surge in home sales, mortgage applications and refinancing, has created some turmoil in the home loan industry.

And that makes it difficult for some borrowers to find the type of mortgage they need. So be prepared to shop further than usual.

But of course, comparing purchases for a loan is always important. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Check your new plan (October 29, 2020)

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Mortgage rate method

The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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