Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates were stable yesterday. It's like major markets are holding their breath as they wait for the crucial statement from the Federal Reserve (2 p.m. ET) and press briefing (30 minutes later) this afternoon.
Depending on what is said, these Fed events (although I suspect they don't) could change anything for mortgage rates. So I can't predict what might happen at these rates today. However, I can report that it was them Step by step higher this morning first.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 24, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 24, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
There is a real chance that the Fed press conference this afternoon could push mortgage rates higher. But most observers (including this one) think it is more likely that the announcement that could propel them up will come in early November or even mid-December.
But other low interest threats could hang around for weeks. And factors that could push them down seem relatively unlikely.
So my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield up to 1.33% from 1.32%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were higher after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices elevated to $ 71.75 from $ 70.68 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices bumped at $ 1,777 from $ 1,775 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – constant at 25. held From 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 24, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
This afternoon's press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy body, the FOMC, could bring an announcement about "tapering".
With apologies to regular readers who are bored of tears on the subject, there will be “tapering” if the Fed cuts its current “quantitative easing program” (also known as “easy money”). Right now, that involves buying huge amounts of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) each month, the type of bond that largely drives mortgage rates.
And you don't need a Nobel Economy Prize to find out that these purchases keep mortgage rates artificially low. This rejuvenation, too, will practically inevitably drive you higher.
That certainly happened the last time the Fed scaled back a similar program in 2013.
How likely is a tapering announcement today?
Personally, I doubt any tapered announcement is coming today. Recent economic data has not provided the ammunition likely needed for restrictive Fed officials to convince the majority of FOMC members to push the button.
But such an announcement is far from impossible today. The Fed will most likely start slowing its easy money program this year. And there's no more room to kick that can down the street.
The other looming threat of low interest rates
But whatever the Fed is doing today, there is another threat to low mortgage rates, which are getting bigger every day. And that's the debt limit.
On Capitol Hill, the House of Representatives passed a bill to raise the ceiling yesterday. But that faces a serious political stalemate in the Senate. And if the cap is not raised before the middle of next month, the country would face a government shutdown and likely default on its debts.
This political football last came into play in 2011. And while lawmakers gave way at the last minute, the very fact that it marginalized it led to US credit ratings being downgraded – and interest rates rising.
If we're pushed to the edge again this time, we'll be mid-October. And just a few weeks later, the Fed will reconsider the throttling. So the omens for mortgage rates are not good.
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in the Wall Street Journal:
The US has never defaulted on payments. Not even. This would likely spark a historic financial crisis that would worsen the damage of the ongoing public health emergency.
But of course it is always possible that in the meantime a momentous event occurs that seriously disrupts the economy. And if that happens, mortgage rates could go down again.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, in April and beyond, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. And interest rates have barely moved lately. Freddies 16th September Report sets up this weekly average 2.86% (with 0.7 fees and points), Low from 2.88% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs updated on August 19th. But Freddies were last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current projections could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon or soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (September 24, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, it will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.