Mortgage

Mortgage and refinancing charges as we speak, 10/18/2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose last Friday. But previous cases meant they closed the week lower than they started it. However, only by the smallest measurable amount. And current interest rates remain incredibly low by historical standards.

Unfortunately, early moves in the markets suggest that Mortgage rates could rise again today. But it's always possible that this can change over the course of the hours.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 18, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*
Change

Conventional 30 years
3.24%
3,258%
Unchanged

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
2,603%
2,633%
+ 0.02%

Conventional 20 years old
2,994%
3.03%
Unchanged

Conventionally fixed for 10 years
2,507%
2,563%
+ 0.02%

30 years permanent FHA
3.215%
3,977%
+ 0.03%

Fixed FTA for 15 years
2,567%
3.211%
Unchanged

5/1 ARM FHA
2,611%
3,173%
+ 0.01%

30 years of permanent VA
3,037%
3.23%
+ 0.03%

15 years fixed VA
2,776%
3.126%
+ 0.03%

5/1 ARM-VA
2,524%
2,395%
+ 0.01%

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 18, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

In my view, overall mortgage rates will rise rather than fall in the coming weeks and months. But there will inevitably be brief periods when they will temporarily subside.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time last Friday, were:

the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.57% to 1.62%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were usually lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationship
Oil prices elevated to $ 83.39 from $ 82.34 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices Inches lower to $ 1,768 of $ 1,769 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Indexincreased from 48 to 53 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise again today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 18, 2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today and so forth

Some disappointing numbers came from Beijing overnight. China's gross domestic product fell slightly compared to forecasts and the country's industrial production fell more short of expectations. We'll see how the markets react here as investors process the data today.

Bad economic data, which can affect the US (like China), often lower mortgage rates. But that wasn't the case today. And right now, bond investors may be too engrossed in the bigger picture to notice something that isn't terrifying. And this big picture currently contains three key elements:

The likely imminent end to the Fed's “quantitative easing” (cheap money) policy. One of them kept mortgage rates artificially low during the pandemic
Warm-to-hot inflation proving to be more persistent than many expected
Consistently declining COVID-19 infection rates in the US since September 13th

Unfortunately, all three are likely to drive mortgage rates higher in the coming weeks and months. In the meantime, forces that are likely to pull them down seem a lot less powerful and obvious to me – at least for now.

For more information on these influences on mortgage rates, see the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.

Recently

The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.

However, as of April, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. More recently, we've had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately we have mainly seen increases since the beginning of September.

Freddies Oct 14 Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.05% (with 0.7 fees and points), high from 2.99% the previous week. Freddie chief economist Sam Khater said in a statement that day:

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has soared to its highest level since April. With inflationary pressures building due to the ongoing pandemic and tightening of monetary policy (the Fed tightening), we expect rates to continue to rise slightly.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates – Updated today

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and Freddies were published on October 15th and the MBAs on October 18th.

Forecasters
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
Q3 / 22

Fannie Mae
3.1%
3.2%
3.2%
3.3%

Freddie Mac
3.2%
3.4%
3.5%
3.6%

MBA
3.1%
3.3%
3.5%
3.7%

However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.

All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Confirm your new plan (October 18, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

Related Articles