Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell slightly yesterday. Of course, such a small drop was barely noticeable after the sharp rises we've seen over the past month. But it was still welcome.
As of this morning it looks like it Mortgage rates today may be unchanged or little changed. But there could be movement later in the day.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 20 years fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed
30 year solid FHA
15 year solid FHA
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years solid VA
15 years solid VA
5/1 ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your tariff may vary. Click here for an individual price offer. See our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Could Yesterday's Slight Decline Mean Mortgage Rates Are Reversing? Well it is possible. But I think it's unlikely.
Of course, it can still be a good sign. Perhaps the sharp rises will come to an end and rates will resume their gentle uptrend. Unfortunately, it's far too early to draw even that conclusion. But that's a stronger possibility than a sustained period of falling.
Therefore, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when it closes 7 daysLOCK when it closes fifteen daysLOCK when it closes 30 daysLOCK when it closes 45 daysLOCK when it closes 60 days
>Related: 7 tips to get the best refinancing rate
Market data affecting today's mortgage rates
Here's a snapshot of the current status at around 9:50 am ET this morning. The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was:
the Yield on 10-year treasury bills fell from 1.85% to 1.83%. (Good for mortgage interest.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular government bond yieldsMajor Stock Indices were higher. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, pushing down their prices and raising yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationshipoil prices rose to $86.71 from $86.60 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity gold prices rose to $1,846 from $1,827 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, interest rates are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates downCNN Business Fear & Greed Index — fell from 68 to 57 out of 100. (Good for mortgage interest.) "Greedy" Investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and into stocks, while "anxious" investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
*A change of less than $20 in gold or 40 cents in oil is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Reservations on Markets and Courses
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still talk on the phone every day. And are mostly right. But our accuracy record won't reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat Mortgage rates should remain stable or close to stable today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction throughout the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest fare. Start here (01/20/2022)
Important information about today's mortgage interest rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it's troubled. But there are exceptions. Read 'How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care"Only "premium" borrowers (with great credit, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you'll see from advertised lenders. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – although over time they all usually follow the broader trend. When daily interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as for purchases.
There's a lot going on at the moment. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks, or months ahead.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Most of the hikes in mortgage rates over the past month have been due to a combination of rising inflation and the Federal Reserve's suspension of pandemic-era stimulus programs.
The latter include the prospect of generally higher interest rates and the early termination of a program that has kept mortgage rates artificially low for almost two years.
Omicron and the fall of COVID-19
But the Fed would not act if the pandemic was still viewed as a major threat. There is a narrative that has caught on that the omicron variant of COVID-19 is the swan song of the disease.
In other words, there is an expectation that so many people will gain immunity from infection with Omicron that COVID-19 will soon be downgraded from a pandemic to an endemic disease, much like seasonal flu. And then we – and the economy – can return to whatever the new normal will be.
This is an attractive narrative. And it may turn out to be right. But the science is far from over. And many public health researchers are warning that we still have a long way to go before saying goodbye to COVID-19.
The English Experiment
But that hasn't stopped the UK Government from announcing yesterday that it will lift almost all of its COVID-19 restrictions in England for the remainder of this month, with plans to end the remaining few in March. Therefore, the face mask rules will be scrapped from January 27th. Mandatory vaccination certificates for access to certain venues will soon no longer be required. And the guidance to work from home if possible ended yesterday.
Some self-isolation laws for patients who test positive will remain in effect until March 24. After that, however, there will be no more COVID-19 restrictions at all, and in the government's words, this should "put life completely back to normal." Instead, people are being urged to use their common sense.
Of course, not everyone is happy about that. And The Guardian, a UK-based newspaper, reports that the National Health Service (NHS), Britain's largest healthcare provider, has concerns:
The NHS Confederation said the move would inevitably put renewed pressure on hospitals, while the British Medical Association said the planned changes were "not data guided".
– The Guardian, “Sajid Javid's removal of all Covid restrictions prompts NHS warnings”, 19 January 2022
But by volunteering to be the world's lab rat, England is doing the rest of us a favor. If his experiment proves a success, we can all break down our own COVID-19 restrictions with much less risk.
But if it fails, the Fed may have to reconsider its actions. And that could take some of the pressure off of mortgage rates.
For a longer look at what's driving mortgage rates, including why markets are bullish on Omicron, read the weekend edition of this daily rates report.
Recent — updated today
For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly down. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times last year.
The last weekly record low was on Jan. 7 when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed by extended periods of ups and downs. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, although not consistently.
Freddies January 20th Report puts that weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 3.56% (with 0.7 fees and points), high versus the 3.45% of the previous week.
Mortgage rate forecasts by experts – updated today
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the real estate sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).
The figures in the table below refer to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie's were released on January 19 and the MBAs on December 21st.
Freddie's was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts quarterly. So we might not get another one of these until later this month. And his numbers are already looking stale.
forecasterQ4/21Q1/22Q2/22Q3/22Fannie Mae3.1%3.2%3.3%3.3%Freddie Mac3.2%3.4%3.5%3.6% MBA3.1%3.3%3.5%3.7%
Personally, I was surprised that Fannie Mae only slightly raised its interest rate forecasts in January. She expects interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to average 3.2% in the current quarter. But on the day the numbers were released, we reported that they were already at 3.87%.
Do Fannie economists expect these rates to fall in February or March and stay lower in subsequent quarters? If so, you know something I don't know.
Of course, with so many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts can be even more speculative than usual.
Find your cheapest fare today
You should compare extensively no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“If you look after your mortgage, you can make real savings. It may not sound like much, however Saving even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
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Mortgage interest methodology
Every day, The Mortgage Reports receives interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We get an average interest rate and APR for each loan type shown in our chart. As we average a range of rates, you'll get a better idea of what you might find on the market. In addition, we calculate interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.