Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. The fall was the smallest that can be measured. But was still welcome.
First of all, the key markets look calm again this morning. And we can see a repeat of the past few days. If so, Mortgage rates today could be lower or remain stable.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jan 23, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional 5-year ARM
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jan 23, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
The most recent constant decreases are complemented by the constant increases immediately preceding. And it is far too early to draw any conclusions about the general direction of mortgage rates.
With pandemics and vaccines in place, things would have to go seriously wrong so that those rates don't rise later in the year once the economy recovers. But that could take a few more months.
In the meantime, there is no reliable indication of where these prices will lead. I therefore advise caution. And right now, my personal recommendations on tariff blocking are hardly better than guesswork:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysHOVER when you approach 45 DaysHOVER when you approach 60 Days
With so much uncertainty right now, however, your instincts could easily prove to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:
The 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 1.09% from 1.11%. (Good for mortgage ratesMore than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were lower When opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower. Oil prices fell from $ 51.99 to $ 51.99 $ 53.07 per barrel. (Good for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices fell from $ 1,865 an ounce to $ 1,839. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index fell from 70 to 67 from 100. Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this caveat, So far, mortgage rates are likely to drop somewhat today.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jan 23, 2021)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
I am expects mortgage rates to fall today. But as always, that could change during the day.
It is very likely that federal spending on pandemic aid and other measures will seek to increase these rates. This morning's Financial Times suggested following the Biden administration's proposals: "… the trillion dollars of stimulus packages will certainly lead to inflation." And that's a sure sign of higher rates.
However, this upward pressure is countered by the economic damage the pandemic is wreaking. Malfunctioning economies go hand in hand with lower rates, just as surely as inflation leads to higher rates.
Unfortunately, there is currently no way of predicting which of these conflict forces will win. It is likely that we will see higher rates after the pandemic ends. But we still have no idea when that will be. Believe us, we can hardly wait to be able to make more confident forecasts again.
The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. A new weekly all-time low was set 16 times in the past year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent such record was set on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But interest rates are now well above the all-time low. In Freddie's January 21 report, that weekly average was 2.77%.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
Fannies were released on January 15th, Freddies on January 14th, and the MBA on January 20th. The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions can be even more speculative than usual. And in the course of the year the spread will certainly increase.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It might not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (January 23, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.