Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates rose a little higher yesterday as we predicted. And conventional loans started this morning at 3.063% (3.063% APR) for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.
Unfortunately we think so Another small increase is likely today. The markets are fueled by three times the amount of good news: vaccination progress; the passing of the elected president; and the appointment of Janet Yellen as the next Secretary of the Treasury.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 24, 2020)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional 5-year ARM
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 24, 2020)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
No one can predict with certainty how long the current likely hike in mortgage rates will last. My instinct is that in a few days, maybe tomorrow, they will return to their previous pattern of continued small falls (interrupted by short climbs).
So I wouldn't lock today if I'm not about to close. And that's because I'm suspecting even lower rates are on the horizon, although that is probably not the case today.
See "Are Mortgage and Refinance Rates Going Up or Down?" (Below) for more. In the meantime, my personal recommendations on tariff blocking are:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysHOVER when you approach 30th DaysHOVER when you approach 45 DaysHOVER when you approach 60 Days
But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is the current status at 9:50 a.m. (ET) this morning. The dates, compared to roughly the same time last Friday morning, were:
The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 0.86% to 0.87%. (Bad for mortgage rates because it fell after a spike yesterday.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, though less recentlyImportant stock indices were almost all higher when opened. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower. Oil prices rose from $ 42.81 a barrel to $ 44.28. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices fell from $ 1,862 an ounce to $ 1,799. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates. CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Increased from 75 to 84 from 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this restriction they search slightly worse for mortgage rates today.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 24, 2020)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued Fed interventions in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. So expect both short-term increases and decreases. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is going on, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refinancing are currently significantly higher after a change in regulations
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
I think Mortgage rates are likely to rise again today. This is due to a happy coincidence (if not happy for those waiting to be banned) of three good business news items in the past 30 hours:
British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca revealed the results of trials with its COVID-19 vaccine – and it may be easier to increase production capacity and to store and transport it than others. It's probably cheaper too. General Services Administration Administrator Emily W. Murphy has given President-elect Joe Biden the green light to begin the transition to power and remove an element of uncertainty. Biden has signaled that he will appoint former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary. Markets like this are a safe pair of hands, and more so, that she isn't Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a candidate too progressive for investors' tastes
It is unclear how long investors will benefit from this news. My gut feeling (nothing more than that) is that it will be a matter of a day or days. And once everyday reality hits, mortgage rates could resume their gentle downward trend. (However, expect occasional periods of surge.)
That's because this day-to-day reality remains bleak whoever holds high office. New coronavirus infections and deaths remain shockingly high. And the outlook is not good: global management consultancy McKinsey & Company has updated its pandemic forecast in response to the latest vaccine news:
The positive results of the vaccine trials mean the United States will most likely reach an epidemiological end to the pandemic (herd immunity) in the third or fourth quarter of 2021.
McKinsey & Company, When does the COVID-19 Pandemic end ?, November 23, 2020
In other words, the pandemic will likely not go anywhere for at least eight months and possibly 13 months. The economic repercussions of this cold fact could soon sober exuberant investors.
The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. Freddie Mac said a new all-time low was set for each of the weeks ending October 15 and 22 and November 5 and 19. Last Thursday's record low was the 13th this year.
Note, however, that Freddie's numbers only relate to buying mortgages and ignore refinancing. And if you averaged both, the rates have been consistently higher than the all-time low since a record high in August. The gap between the two has been widened by a controversial regulatory change.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the final quarter of 2020 (Q4 / 20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21 and Q3 / 21).
Note, however, that fannies (published November 17th) and the MBA (also November 17th) are updated monthly. However, Freddies are now released quarterly. And its latest was released on October 14th.
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
ForecasterQ4 / 20Q1 / 21Q2 / 21Q3 / 21Fannie Mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Freddie Mac 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% MBA 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2%
So the predictions vary considerably. You pay your money …
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been made nervous by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (November 24, 2020)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.