Mortgage

Mortgage and refinance charges right now, December three, 2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose slightly yesterday. It was another day major markets began going one way, only to make a screeching U-turn. No wonder financial writers live out the old "roller coaster" cliché.

It's hard to figure out what is driving the markets this morning. The monthly job report published earlier was much worse than expected. Yet Mortgage rates are likely to rise slightly today. That makes little sense and could well change if investors digest the data and news.

Find your lowest plan. Start here (December 4th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*
Change

Conventional 30 years
3,317%
3,337%
+ 0.03%

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
2,695%
2,726%
+ 0.01%

Conventional 20 years old
3,169%
3.2%
Unchanged

Conventionally fixed for 10 years
2,663%
2,728%
+ 0.02%

30 years permanent FHA
3,321%
4,086%
Unchanged

Fixed FTA for 15 years
2,645%
3,289%
+ 0.05%

5/1 ARM FHA
2,207%
3,097%
Unchanged

30 years of permanent VA
3,247%
3,442%
+ 0.09%

15 years fixed VA
2.86%
3,203%
+ 0.13%

5/1 ARM-VA
2.5%
2.5%
+ 0.11%

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your price can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

Whether or not we see the lower mortgage rates I was hoping for in the next few weeks depends on how harmful the COVID-19 Omicron variant is. But after an initial panic, investors seem to be buying predictions from more optimistic scientists. Hence, we may have to wait for these lower prices. And they cannot materialize at all.

No, I am not ready to give up my hope, even if you might think differently. However, I may be forced to change my personal rate lock recommendations again soon.

For the time being, however, these will remain:

HOVER when close in 7th DaysHOVER when close in fifteen DaysHOVER when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days

> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.43% to 1.45%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives the prices of those stocks down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices rose from $ 64.78 a barrel to $ 68.98. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity Gold prices increased from $ 1,770 an ounce to $ 1,774. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, prices are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – increased from 23 from 100 to 26. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates rise) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won't hit its old highs until things settle down.

Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today modest. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find your lowest plan. Start here (December 4th, 2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top borrowers (with great credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time when daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same. Funding rates are usually close at the for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today

Earlier this week, I doubted investors would look away from the Omicron variant long enough to even notice this morning's employment report. Overnight I thought I was wrong. Now I'm not so sure.

In November, 210,000 new jobs were added to the non-agricultural payrolls. However, economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected 573,000. That's quite a shortcoming that would normally lower mortgage rates. But they rose first.

So far, this has been a bit of a mystery to me. Maybe that will change as the day progresses.

Omicron

Yesterday, the Nature magazine website published a useful overview of our previous knowledge of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. It reminded us that barely a week had passed since the new strain was announced. And described how scientists struggle to understand their properties. This article continued:

However, it could take scientists weeks to paint a more complete picture of Omicron and understand its transmissibility and severity, as well as its potential to bypass vaccines and cause reinfection.

– Nature, “How bad is Omicron? What Scientists Know So Far ”, December 2, 2021

So far the picture has been mixed. Some researchers are seeing evidence that Omicron may cause serious problems (hospital admissions and deaths) in fewer cases than the Delta variant. Others, however, observe very high transmission rates, even among those previously infected with or vaccinated against Delta.

But these two narratives are based on very limited studies. And nobody is ready to draw any concrete conclusions yet.

What that means for mortgage rates

After an initial sharp reaction to the Omicron discovery, investors appear ready to shrug off their threats, at least until they are more clearly defined. Mortgage rates have risen in the past few days, which, according to the Mortgage News Daily archives, wiped out about half of the profits made after the new variant was announced.

In fact, Freddie Mac's weekly rate announcement yesterday showed that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 3.11% from 3.10% the previous week.

Of course, nobody wants Omicron to be as devastating as it was a week ago. But the thin silver lining of this blackest cloud would have been lower mortgage rates.

Yes, we may still see these, depending on what scientists discover and how investors react to their revelations. But let's hope we don't.

I am now considering changing my rate lock recommendations again. But I'm just as blindly groping in the dark as everyone else.

The debt ceiling can be lowered further

There is good news. A crisis that could have resulted in much higher mortgage rates has been averted.

Yesterday both houses of Congress passed a spending bill preventing an imminent partial shutdown of the government. But it's only a patch that will expire on February 18th. And until then we need new spending bills that will raise the debt ceiling and keep the government funded.

Further background information can be found in the weekend edition of this daily report from Saturday.

Recently

The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows last year.

The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.

Freddies Dec 2 Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.11% (with 0.6 fees and points), easy high from the previous week.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on November 18th and the MBAs on November 22nd.

Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another of these until January.

ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%

However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.

And none of these forecasters suspected that Omicron could completely change the models on which they are based.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to mortgages and refinancing with the most vanilla flavor.

But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, whatever type of mortgage you want, you should make extensive comparisons. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Real savings can be achieved when looking for your mortgage. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

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Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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