Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose slightly yesterday. But such a small increase is unlikely to bother you very much. Don't be fooled by small movements on Monday and last Friday. There is still a lot of volatility to come.
Until this morning it looks like it is Mortgage rates could go up slightly today. But that could change during the day.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (December 7th, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your price can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Freeze your mortgage rate today if you are careful about money matters. Or float if you love to play. Which course of action will prove to be profitable is beyond my predictive power – and that of everyone else.
Because it all depends on how economically harmful the Omicron variant of COVID-19 is. And who is currently forecasting that, advises.
I don't have enough information yet to change my personal rate lock recommendations. But read it in light of the above. These remain for the time being:
HOVER when close in 7th DaysHOVER when close in fifteen DaysHOVER when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days
> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.38% to 1.45%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives the prices of those stocks down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices rose from $ 67.71 a barrel to $ 71.58. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity Gold prices increased from $ 1,778 an ounce to $ 1,782. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, prices are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – increased from 20 from 100 to 31. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won't hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today modest. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (December 7th, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top borrowers (with great credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time when daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same. Funding rates are usually close at the for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
The epic battle I described yesterday continues. It will likely do so until public health researchers can better assess the likely effects of the Omicron variant.
It looks likely that Omicron is much more portable than previous variants. And researchers here and in Europe are predicting that it "will likely become the dominant strain in the coming weeks and months". That's what a team led by Harvard Medical School says.
But we still don't know if it has more or less harmful effects on health. Also whether it will be more resistant to existing vaccines and previous infections. Many believe that these vaccines will continue to offer good protection against serious illness and death.
Markets and Mortgage Rates
Markets (including the ones that largely determine mortgage rates) hate uncertainty. And investors are having a stressful time right now as they wait for a clearer picture of the likely economic impact of Omicron.
For the past few days, these investors seem to have tended to be optimistic about the Omicron Effect. But they have only a fragile basis for this stance. And it will only last as long as there are few negative headlines and reports.
So expect mortgage rates to be volatile and unpredictable. They'll likely rise when the Omicron stories are upbeat and fall when those stories suggest the pandemic could be really bad. And they are unlikely to settle until we have a much clearer picture.
Further background information can be found in the weekend edition of this daily report from Saturday.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows last year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.
Freddies Dec 2 Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.11% (with 0.6 fees and points), easy high from the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on November 18th and the MBAs on November 22nd.
Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another of these until January.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
And none of these forecasters suspected that Omicron could completely change the models on which they are based.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to mortgages and refinancing with the most vanilla flavor.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, whatever type of mortgage you want, you should make extensive comparisons. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Real savings can be achieved when looking for your mortgage. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (December 7, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.