Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday. And they are now within reach of the all-time lows.
This morning the first thing it looked like was Mortgage rates could stay stable today or just move on either side of the neutral line. But that could change over the course of the hours.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 4, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 4, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Average mortgage rates have only risen twice since July 14, according to Mortgage News Daily (MND) figures. And none of these increases were significant.
MND yesterday put the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 2.8%. And its all-time low is currently 2.75%. You can almost feel the hot breath of this record low. Note that MND and Freddie Mac use different methods for their surveys and therefore have slightly different numbers. But both are likely to have similar over low rates.
But be careful if you keep swimming. Almost all mortgage experts believe higher rates are on the way. And you have to be ready to float as soon as the tide turns.
My personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK when close in 7th Days
LOCK when close in fifteen Days
HOVER when close in 30th Days
HOVER when close in 45 Days
HOVER when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
That 10 year Treasury note yield fell from 1.21% to 1.16%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recentlyImportant stock indices were mostly a bit higher shortly after the opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lowerOil prices stumbled to $ 69.64 from $ 73.10 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices up to $ 1,816 of $ 1,812 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – outlined below on 27 of 31 of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged or barely changed today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 4, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
If you read yesterday's edition of this daily column, you know that I remain convinced that mortgage rates will rise soon. And it is possible that the rise will be steep.
But for now they will fall. So what's going on right now?
Well, the story in the financial media is that it's mostly about COVID-19. CNBC reported yesterday:
The spread of the delta coronavirus variant continued to keep investors nervous. The seven-day average of daily coronavirus cases in the US hit 72,790 on Friday, beating its peak last summer when the nation did not have an approved COVID-19 vaccine, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
– CNBC, “Single Stock Futures Rise Slightly After One Losing Day,” August 2, 2021
But the news is actually good
It is true that infection rates are increasing. But yesterday the vaccination rate also hit the president's target of 70%. And while hospital stays and deaths are also rising, their raw numbers remain well below their pre-vaccination era levels. The vaccines work to prevent serious illnesses – among those who have been vaccinated.
And this CNBC article made it clear that some investors are more freaked out by this new wave of COVID-19 than others. In it quoted UBS Chief Investment Officer for America, Solita Marcelli:
The delta variant of the virus is now spreading rapidly in the USA and a moderate decline in (economic) activities cannot be ruled out. But any possible slowdown should be moderated a little.
If Ms. Marcelli is right, the current economic boom is likely to continue, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Still, this year we are likely to see the fastest growth in US gross domestic product (GDP) in several decades. And mortgage rates almost always go up when the economy is doing well.
Of course, there are other threats to economic recovery as well. Perhaps most likely, the possible emergence of a new, vaccine-resistant variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. But that's only a distant possibility.
And I am amazed, along with many others, why bond markets (one of which directly determines mortgage rates) are pretending that we are in the middle of a recession when we are in fact booming.
For more background information, see Saturday's weekend edition of this column.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases since April, albeit typically small. Freddie's July 29 report puts this weekly average at 2.8% (with 0.7 fees and points). high from 2.78% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on July 19, Freddies on July 15, and the MBAs on July 21.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.