Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose noticeably last Friday. It was the end of a bad week for mortgage rates. But they remain extraordinarily low by all standards.
The first thing that indicated this was market action this morning Mortgage rates today could be unchanged or barely changed. But with so much uncertainty, there are no guarantees.
Find a cheap rate and block it (August 14, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find a cheap rate and block it (August 14, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Last week's events increased the risk of your interest rate fluctuating further. Read on for more details.
That doesn't necessarily mean that interest rates will continue to rise. But they are more likely to do that now. And anyone who considers themselves cautious or conservative about money might well choose to lock their interest rate now, regardless of when it closes.
Of course, only you can make that decision. But my personal rate lock recommendations that have changed over the weekend are:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time last Friday, were:
That 10 year Treasury note yield decreased from 1.29% to 1.28%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recently
Important stock indices were mostly lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices stumbled to $ 66.22 from $ 69.08 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices fell from $ 1 to $ 1,743,771 one ounce. (Bad for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – fell to 36 of 39 of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or be just a few inches on either side of the neutral line. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find a cheap rate and block it (August 14, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
In the last weekend edition of this column, I examined the possibility of events over the past week that could reverse the recent downward trend in mortgage rates. It's just that: a possibility. And we have to wait and see how things develop in reality.
However, it could be that last Friday's excellent employment report changed investor attitudes. Before Friday they could say, “Well, yes. Almost all economic data in the last few months point to a strong recovery and a boom. But look at the employment figures. "
And they could continue to say that. After all, a month's data is a poor basis for making important decisions. But they are less likely. Most importantly, if enough people believe the boom is almost certain, it should lead to higher mortgage rates.
This morning, CNN Business’s Before the Bell e-newsletter put it this way:
The yields on 10-year US benchmark bonds rose to around 1.3%, their highest level since July 23, according to Friday's job report. Since then, the yields have decreased somewhat. But the increase of 943,000 jobs in the United States is great news for the economy, making the Federal Reserve more likely to begin pulling its stimulus measures earlier than expected.
The part of its stimulus that the Fed is likely to pull back first is the reduction. And that's next.
The other big event last week that could change investors' minds was the move within the Federal Reserve. Two senior officials said an early throttling was now likely. But what is rejuvenating?
Well, it's a gradual reduction in the purchase of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Right now, the Fed is buying these bonds for $ 40 billion a month. And that keeps mortgage rates artificially low.
Before last week, the official line was that tapering would only happen if the conditions were right – at an indefinite time in the future. But these two Fed people said that things had already changed and that this could happen much sooner than previously implied. One actually named September 22nd as the date he personally returned for a formal announcement.
Once investors are convinced that the tapering is imminent, they will likely pretend it has already happened. And start driving up mortgage rates. Probably.
What that means for mortgage rates
The "likely" is important. Because in the last few months investors have thrown away their time-honored playbook. And they behaved in a way that has puzzled financial journalists and Wall Street analysts alike.
So no one can be sure how the events of the past week will develop. And we could see mortgage rates resume their previous downward trend.
Or we could look back on last week and see it as the tipping point when mortgage rates started rising higher. Nobody knows.
For more background information, see Saturday's weekend edition of this column.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases since April, albeit typically small. Freddie's August 5th report puts this weekly average at 2.77% (with 0.6 fees and points). Low from 2.80% the previous week. But this report did not take into account the increases on that Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on July 19, Freddies on July 15, and the MBAs on July 21.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (August 14, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.