Mortgage and refinance charges in the present day, September 25th, and rate of interest forecast for subsequent week

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose again yesterday. Thank goodness the increase was much less steep than on Thursday. Still, on Friday night, those rates were about 10 basis points (one basis point is one hundredth of 1%) higher than a week earlier.

I suspect this Mortgage rates will continue to rise next week. But with so much new volatility, that's really a guess.

Find and lock a cheap rate (September 26, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*

Conventional 30 years

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
+ 0.01%

Conventional 20 years old

Conventionally fixed for 10 years

30 years permanent FHA

Fixed FTA for 15 years
+ 0.02%

+ 0.04%

30 years of permanent VA

15 years fixed VA

5/1 ARM-VA
+ 0.02%

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a cheap rate (September 26, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

Yes, I would suggest that you lock your mortgage rate very soon. Of course there will be ups and downs in the next days and weeks.

But the forces opposing low mortgage rates seem much stronger and more likely to me than those that could push them down. (For my reasons, read on.)

My personal recommendations therefore remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

With so much uncertainty right now, however, your instincts could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut instinct and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

What is driving current mortgage rates?

Last week, I reported that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates were up 10 basis points in the past seven days, according to the Mortgage News Daily (MND) archives. And this week they did the same thing, increasing a total of 3.13% from 2.93% in nine calendar days.

We can possibly call this a rising short-term trend. But it hasn't been established long enough to draw any conclusions.

Reason for the climb

Most commentators like to route the recent increases to the final meeting of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). That ended on Wednesday with the publication of a statement and the hosting of a press conference. Read 2% Mortgage Rates Could Go "Soon" Per Fed session for the facts.

And those commentators are right that the main driver behind the higher interest rates was likely these Fed events. But there were others, perhaps most notably the unexpected slowdown in COVID-19 infection rates.

The New York Times (Paywall) reported that the number of new cases in the US had fallen 16% in the 14 days leading up to September 24th. And they decreased by 14% worldwide during this period.

That's a big deal for the markets. One of the reasons why mortgage rates are so low is that investors bought mortgage-backed securities (MBSs – a type of bond that largely determines these interest rates) to protect themselves against the economic consequences of the pandemic. And when fears subside, they're likely to sell some of their MBS, which will drive interest rates so high.

In the meantime, there is one other factor that could drive mortgage rates higher. And that's the political battle brewing on Capitol Hill over the debt line. If this is not resolved within a few weeks, the US government will default its debt for the first time in history. And that will almost certainly make all forms of borrowing, including mortgages, more expensive.

Could mortgage rates fall again?

Of course, it is possible that mortgage rates will continue to fall. But it always looks less likely.

True, it is inevitable that both rise and fall some days. And we can have longer falls.

But I doubt we'll get any closer to the 2021 lows no matter what happens with the pandemic. Well, almost no matter what. A new, ultra-virulent and highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 variant that forces long-term lockdowns worldwide could bring mortgage rates to new all-time lows. But let's hope that is unlikely.

As are other possible triggers for persistently lower mortgage rates. They range from wars to major natural disasters and beyond. Yes, possible. But not likely.

And weighing the potential risks and benefits is the key to when to lock your mortgage rate. Yes, you could be wrong because neither of us can see into the future. But this weighing process will help you rather than act blindly. And it makes it easier to enjoy or live with the consequences of your decision later.

Economic reports next week

There are some important economic reports coming up next week, with Friday being the most important. But I suspect its impact will be barely noticeable between the aftershocks of the Fed meeting, the noise of the debt ceiling, and the brighter outlook for COVID-19.

None of the other economic reports listed below are likely to cause much movement in the markets unless they include shockingly good or bad data:

Monday – August Durable and Capital Goods orders Tuesday – July S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index and September Consumer Confidence Index Thursday – Weekly new unemployment insurance claims through September 25 Friday – August Core inflation along with real disposable income and real consumer spending. Also construction expenses in August. Plus September Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. And the consumer sentiment index for September

There is a lot going on on Friday. But will investors notice that with all the noise?

Find and lock a cheap rate (September 26, 2021)

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

My best guess is that Mortgage rates are set to rise again this week, but probably only moderately. However, given the recent volatility, this is only a guess.

Mortgage and refinancing rates usually move in parallel. And a gap that had grown between the two was largely closed with the recent abolition of the disadvantageous market refinancing fee.

And another regulatory change announced this week likely made investment property and vacation home mortgages more accessible and affordable.

This is how your mortgage rate is determined

Mortgage and refinance rates are generally determined by prices on a secondary market (similar to the stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And that depends heavily on the economy. So mortgage rates are typically high when things are going well and low when the economy is in trouble.

Your part

But you play a huge role in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can significantly affect it by:

Rummage For Your Best Mortgage Rate – They Vary A Lot From Lender To Lender Improve Your Credit Score – Even A Small Boost Can Make A Big Difference To Your Interest Rate And Payments Save The Biggest Down Payment You Can – Lenders Like You To Be Real In This Game Keeping Your Other Borrowings Modest – The lower your other monthly obligations, the higher the mortgage you can afford. Choose Your Mortgage Carefully – Are You Better Off With A Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo, Or Any Other Loan?

The time you spend getting these ducks in a row can result in you winning lower prizes.

Remember, it's not just a mortgage rate

Remember to count all of the upcoming home ownership costs when figuring out how much a mortgage you can afford. So concentrate on your "PITI". This is yours P.rincipal (pays back the amount borrowed), IInterest (the price of borrowing), (property) TAxles and (homeowners) IInsurance. Our mortgage calculator will help you with this.

Depending on your mortgage type and the amount of your down payment, you may also need to pay for mortgage insurance. And that can easily reach three digits every month.

But there are other potential costs as well. So you have to pay community contributions if you choose to live with an HOA. And wherever you live, you have to expect repair and maintenance costs. There is no landlord to call if something goes wrong!

Eventually, you will find it hard to forget about closing costs. You can see this in the specified annual percentage rate (APR). Because this effectively spreads it over the term of your loan and is thus higher than your pure mortgage interest.

But you may be able to get help with these closing costs and your down payment, especially if you are a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in each state for 2021

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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