Mortgage

Mortgage and refinance charges in the present day, November 1st, 2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates were stable last Friday. Mortgage rates closed the week modestly lower than at the beginning, but remained close to their six-month high. But of course they are still exceptionally low compared to almost all times in history.

Unfortunately, mortgage rates are likely to rise today, if only modestly. But the markets are volatile so there are no guarantees.

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Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*
Change

Conventional 30 years
3.22%
3,239%
Unchanged

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
2,622%
2,653%
+ 0.02%

Conventional 20 years old
3,013%
3,047%
+ 0.03%

Conventionally fixed for 10 years
2,538%
2,593%
+ 0.02%

30 years permanent FHA
3,209%
3,971%
Unchanged

Fixed FTA for 15 years
2,566%
3.21%
Unchanged

5/1 ARM FHA
2.65%
3,207%
+ 0.01%

30 years of permanent VA
3.118%
3,311%
Unchanged

15 years fixed VA
2.8%
3.15%
+ 0.03%

5/1 ARM-VA
2,612%
2,427%
+ 0.01%

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

This week can bring some big events. But I doubt any of them will stop – let alone reverse – the current uptrend in mortgage rates.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time last Friday, were:

the 10 year Treasury note yield reduced from 1.61% to 1.60%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were higher after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices rose from $ 82.40 a barrel to $ 84.77. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices increased from $ 1,778 an ounce to $ 1,790. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – jumped from 71 from 100 to 78. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates could go up today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

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Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the bulk of daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time. When daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Two economic events this week could disrupt the markets. But both are likely to lower mortgage rates at least sustainably.

Fed announcement

The first is an announcement Wednesday after a two-day meeting of that organization's monetary policy committee, the Federal Reserve's Open Markets Committee (FOMC). Pretty much everyone thinks that on that day it will say it will start shutting down the "quantitative easing" (cheap money) programs it put in place in response to the economic damage caused by the pandemic. This morning's Financial Times called it the "dawn of the quantitative tightening era."

One of these programs has kept mortgage rates artificially low for the past 19 months. The Fed bought mortgage bonds ("mortgage-backed securities") at a rate of $ 40 billion per month during this period. And many expect it to reduce that by slashing that amount by $ 5 billion every month until purchases hit zero in mid-2022.

I used to think that Wednesday's announcement would make mortgage rates soar. This was the last time the Fed announced in 2013 that it would phase out a similar program. But this time it's different. The FOMC has clearly signaled its intentions so that the markets have been able to get used to the idea in recent months. And the recent hikes in mortgage rates have likely been due to these markets adjusting to what they believe to be inevitable.

Wednesday's announcement could therefore only bring a small reaction in the markets. However, I expect mortgage rates to continue to rise gently as the Fed cuts its support for low rates.

Of course, we won't know the Fed's intentions until Wednesday. And there's a chance they'll delay their action until their next meeting in mid-December or even beyond. However, expectations of an announcement that day are so high and nearly universal that the FOMC will most likely proceed as expected.

Job report

The second big event of the week is on Friday when the job report ("Employment Report") is published. This is arguably the most influential of all economic reports. And the markets can respond with lower mortgage rates when they are unexpectedly dire – or higher when they are better than expected.

However, I doubt it will be bad enough to undermine the current uptrend in mortgage rates for long. So don't put too much hope on it.

And of course it is always possible that something significant from the left field approaches us and changes everything. But let's hope that remains unlikely. Because it would have to be devastating to have a big impact.

Further background information can be found in the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.

Recently

The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become clearer since September.

Freddies Oct 28 Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.14% (with 0.7 fees and points), high compared to 3.09% the previous week.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking to the future, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and Freddies were published on October 15th and the MBAs on October 18th.

ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%

However, with so many imponderables, all of the current forecasts can be even more speculative than usual.

All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

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Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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