Mortgage

Mortgage and refinance charges in the present day, November 18, 2020

Today's mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday. And conventional loans started this morning at 3.0% (3.0% APR) for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.

These rates haven't quite dropped to their lowest point in the last month. But they are very close. And we hope so Mortgage rates will remain stable today or fall again – as long as there are no messages that change things.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 18, 2020)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
Mortgage rates
APR *
change
Conventional 30 years fixed
3%.
3%.
Unchanged
Conventional 15 years fixed
2.75%.
2.75%.
-0.06%
Conventional 5-year ARM
3%.
2,743%.
Unchanged
Fixed FTA for 30 years
2.938%.
3,919%.
-0.06%
Fixed FTA for 15 years
2.125%.
3.065%.
-0.13%
5 years ARM FHA
2.5%.
3,239%.
Unchanged
30 years permanent VA
2,813%.
2.99%.
-0.19%
15 years fixed VA
2%.
2,319%.
-0.25%
5 years ARM VA
2.5%.
2,419%.
Unchanged
Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 18, 2020)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

I wouldn't lock today if I'm not close to closing. However, it doesn't mean you shouldn't. After all, the rates are currently very low and any delay carries some risk.

But I expect more falls in the coming days, weeks, and months. And if they do, you could make modest profits.

So why not wait until the last minute? Because some rising periods are inevitable within a downtrend. And you don't want to get involved in any of these. So pick a good day close – but not too close – close to graduation.

See "Are Mortgage and Refinance Rates Going Up or Down?" (Below) for more.

In the meantime, my personal recommendations on tariff blocking are:

LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysHOVER when you approach 30th DaysHOVER when you approach 45 DaysHOVER when you approach 60 Days

But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

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Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here is the current status at 9:50 a.m. (ET) this morning. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:

The 10-year Treasury yield decreased from 0.87% to 0.86%. (Good for mortgage rates.More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were mostly a bit higher when opened. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower. Oil prices rose from $ 41.05 per barrel to $ 41.86. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices fell from $ 1,885 an ounce to $ 1,876. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut rates on the CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – rose from 66 to 73 from 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we only count significant differences in mortgage rates as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of ​​what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this restriction they search quiet for mortgage rates today.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 18, 2020)

Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you need to know:

The continued Fed interventions in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. So expect both short-term increases and decreases. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same for purchases. However, some types of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refinancing are currently significantly higher after a change in regulations

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today

I think Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or fall again.

Part of yesterday's decline was due to disappointing retail sales released that morning. But I suspect they would have held up or would have fallen, even if they had been better.

After all, investors know that October data is already out of date. And with the economy being hit so badly – and so quickly – by the pandemic, you need to be aware that this month's numbers are likely to be worse for almost all indicators.

In the past two weeks, COVID-19 infections have increased by 79% nationwide. And tragically, according to the New York Times, deaths are up 38%. Last night, the AARP released a list of all the restrictions currently in place. And it said:

Governors across the country are giving their residents instructions and recommendations on the status of schools, businesses, and public services as their states respond to the coronavirus outbreak. All states have taken measures related to coronavirus, but the restrictions vary, as do the duration of the measures.

AARP – List of Coronavirus-Related Restrictions in Each State, November 17, 2020

With the economy likely to be in recession again, even lower mortgage rates can be expected. However, expect an increase (short and modest, I hope) in response to the occasional good news.

Recently

The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. Freddie Mac said a new all-time low was set for each week ending October 15, October 22 and November 5. However, last Thursday's report said that interest rates "rose" this week.

Note, however, that Freddie's numbers only refer to buying mortgages and ignore refinancing. And if you averages over both, the rates have been consistently higher than the all-time low since a record high in August. The gap between the two has been widened by a controversial regulatory change.

Mortgage Forecast Experts

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the final quarter of 2020 (Q4 / 20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21 and Q3 / 21).

Note, however, that fannies (published November 17th) and the MBA (also November 17th) are updated monthly. However, Freddies are now released quarterly. And its latest was released on October 14th.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:

ForecasterQ4 / 20Q1 / 21Q2 / 21Q3 / 21Fannie Mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Freddie Mac 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% MBA 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2%

So the predictions vary considerably. You pay your money …

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been made nervous by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Check your new plan (November 18, 2020)

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Mortgage rate method

The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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