Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose on Wednesday. But it was such a small increase that you shouldn't mind.
And it looks like it does Mortgage rates could fall today spicy. This appears to be due to renewed fears of a COVID-19 resurgence after a new variant emerged in southern Africa.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
On Wednesday, I wrote, "There is still little evidence that mortgage rates are falling in response to the daily increase in COVID-19 infections." Well, that may change today. Read on for the news that could result in a potentially sharp drop in mortgage rates.
It is far too early for me to change my personal rate lock recommendations to reflect information that is still floating around. But you should weigh this new information in deciding whether or not to follow my advice. Certainly, I would not lock today.
But for now, these rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time on Wednesday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield dropped from 1.68% to 1.52%. (Very good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were significantly lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices down from $ 78.47 a barrel to $ 72.87. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices rose from $ 1,783 an ounce to $ 1,800. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Crashed from 57 from 100 to 42. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to fall significantly today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (11/26/2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top borrowers (with great credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the bulk of daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time. When daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and keep their price lists the same as for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
The main story in The Guardian (published in London, England) overnight was about a new (possibly “worst ever”) variant of COVID-19 that has just surfaced in South Africa. Scientists are still realizing how scary this B.1.1.529 variant is. But it is worrying that England has banned flights out of that country and five others in the region.
A Guardian Tale Says:
B.1.1.529 has a very unusual set of mutations that are worrying because they could help bypass the body's immune response and make it more transmissible, scientists said. Any new variant capable of bypassing vaccines or spreading faster than the now prevalent Delta variant could pose a significant threat if the world emerges from the pandemic.
– The Guardian: "What do we know about the new 'worst' Covid variant of all time?" November 25, 2021
Meanwhile, the cover story ran overnight in the Washington Post under the headline: "As cases rise in America, health officials are warning that the rise in Covid in Europe could be a window into the future."
And it went on to quote Carissa F. Etienne, the director of the Pan American Health Organization. During a briefing on Wednesday, she said:
We have seen again and again how the infection dynamics in Europe are reflected here a few weeks later. The future is unfolding before us, and it has to be a wake-up call for our region because we are even more vulnerable. "
– The Washington Post: "As cases increase in America, the health authority warns that the rise in Covid in Europe could be a 'window into the future'", November 25, 2021
What that could mean for mortgage rates
As I have noted several times recently, all of the forces that have driven mortgage rates high in the past few months have been based on the current impressive economic recovery. And that depended on the easing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
If we see a significant COVID-19 resurgence in winter, mortgage rates could well fall. And if that resurgence includes a new, more deadly variant of the coronavirus proving vaccine-resistant, those rates could fall, perhaps to new all-time lows.
But don't be afraid of the economy or hoping too much for lower mortgage rates. Scientists are still at the beginning of their investigations into B.1.1.529. And it could prove to be a lot less worrying than they currently fear.
In the meantime, given the higher number (59.1%) of Americans vaccinated, the U.S. economy could prove significantly more resilient to a new wave of infections than it did last winter.
In other words, watch this room.
So what happens if it turns out that variant B.1.1.529 is not a cause for concern? What if the possible winter wave of coronavirus infections turns out to be a mere wave of recovery?
Well then I would expect mortgage rates to continue rising slightly, in part due to four reasons that popped up in reports Wednesday:
The Federal Reserve's minutes show that the Fed is actively considering reducing its mortgage bond purchases faster than announced. Initial jobless claims last week were at their lowest level since November 15, 1969. That's a 52-year low! warmer than – or as warm as – expected Gross domestic product (GDP) growth was robust
Each of them would normally be used to drive mortgage rates up. But not when COVID-19 fears swamp markets.
You can also read last Saturday's weekend edition for more general background information.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.
Freddies November 24th Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.1% (with 0.7 fees and points), unchanged from the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on November 18th and the MBAs on November 22nd.
Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another one until January.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (November 26, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.