Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates barely moved last Friday, and yours were likely unchanged.
This morning it looks like mortgage rates may go up today. But things could change later.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (January 4th, 2022)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your price can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
After an initial sharp reaction to the advent of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, the markets have largely dismissed the associated economic risks. However, they had no reason to go beyond blind optimism.
But it looks like they were right. Because most of the recent news from scientists suggests that the Omicron wave could be terrible for a very few and relatively short for everyone: a matter of weeks. And it could make populations and economies stronger than they were before. More on this below.
If this is the case, mortgage rates could rise again consistently.
That's why I changed my personal rate lock recommendations last Friday. And they are now:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time last Friday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.51% to 1.59%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives the prices of those stocks down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices down from $ 76.12 a barrel to $ 75.38. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity Gold prices dropped from $ 1,825 to $ 1,808. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, prices are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – increased from 64 from 100 to 68. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won't hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (January 4th, 2022)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top borrowers (with great credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price movements – though they all follow the broader trend over time when daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and keep their price lists the same for purchases.
There is a lot going on at the moment. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
We could be pretty sure from the start that Omicron was much more transmissible than previous variants of COVID-19. And the infection rates were actually shockingly high.
But there are signs that can be good. As a Wall Street Journal headline noted last night, "The Omicron Variant May End Up Saving Lives." Where From? Well, recent scientific reports suggest that when compared to previous variants:
Causes less lung damage in most patients Typically has milder symptoms and reduces the likelihood of death and hospitalization for any infected patient. Causes shorter waves of infection – South Africa has seen a sharp drop in infection rates just six or seven weeks after the first cases. And the UK, another early hit, is seeing cases increase at a slower pace. Offers good future protection for those infected against all existing forms of COVID-19
It is tempting to assume the scenario that Omicron is the swan song of COVID-19: that by spring it will all be over and back to normal. And that is entirely possible. Because pandemics usually end this way. The Spanish flu, for example, lasted about 26 months. Its virus still exists as endemic – as do COVID-19 variants. But it doesn't kill a lot of people.
However, not all public health researchers are willing to accept this scenario. For example, the salon's website yesterday quoted notable figures who continue to worry that more COVID-19 variants – or even entirely new strains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) – may emerge. And they could cause more deaths and serious illnesses than anything we've seen before.
What that could mean for mortgage rates
But personally, I welcome the good news from Omicron with cautious optimism. And I suspect the markets will too.
If I'm right, mortgage rates can go up more consistently. Because the forces that drove them up before Omicron are still strong: mainly high inflation and the dismantling of their economic stimulus programs from the pandemic era by the US Federal Reserve. On top of that, however, there is the sustained strong economic recovery.
But even if Omicron turns out to be a hidden blessing, we are still facing at least several weeks of serious economic disruption and some personal tragedy. The markets can therefore have a rocky road ahead of them.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows last year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed-rate mortgages stood at 2.65%.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.
Freddies 30th of December Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.11% (with 0.7 fees and points), high compared to 3.05% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on December 20th and the MBAs on December 21st.
Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another of these until January. And his numbers are already looking stale.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest price today
You should compare everywhere, no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“If you are looking for your mortgage you can find real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars during the term of your loan. "
Show me today's prices (Jan 4th 2022)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an advertisement for the products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the policies or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parents or affiliates.