Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose sharply yesterday. When they left this morning, a modest climb had looked likely.
Perhaps there is better news in store. Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or even fall slightly.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 20 years fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed
30 year solid FHA
15 year solid FHA
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years solid VA
15 years solid VA
5/1 ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your tariff may vary. Click here for an individual price offer. See our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Don't get too excited if mortgage rates drop a bit today. This is probably one of those breathers that all markets take occasionally, rather than the start of a new downtrend.
And overall, I expect mortgage rates will continue to rise for some time to come.
Therefore, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when it closes 7 daysLOCK when it closes fifteen daysLOCK when it closes 30 daysLOCK when it closes 45 daysLOCK when it closes 60 days
>Related: 7 tips to get the best refinancing rate
Market data affecting today's mortgage rates
Here's a snapshot of the current status at around 9:50 am ET this morning. The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was:
the Yield on 10-year treasury bills rose from 1.79% to 1.77%. (Good for mortgage interest.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular government bond yieldsMajor Stock Indices were lower. (Good for mortgage interest.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, pushing down their prices and raising yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationshipoil prices hardly moved: from $79.03 a barrel to $79.02. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity gold prices rose to $1,803 from $1,793 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, interest rates are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates downCNN Business Fear & Greed Index — Stable at 52 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and switch to stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
*A change of less than $20 in gold or 40 cents in oil is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Reservations on Markets and Courses
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still talk on the phone every day. And are mostly right. But our accuracy record won't reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat Mortgage rates are likely to be unchanged or only slightly lower today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction throughout the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest fare. Start here (January 11, 2022)
Important information about today's mortgage interest rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it's troubled. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – although over time they all usually follow the broader trend. When daily interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as those for purchases.
There's a lot going on at the moment. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks, or months ahead.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Mortgage rates have risen rapidly so far this year. In fact, it's the strongest climb I can remember.
We might take a little breather today. But how long that lasts depends on the upcoming events:
What Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is testifying before the Senate Banking Committee this morning is tomorrow's inflation data in the form of the December CPI
We'll just have to wait and see how these develop.
For a longer look at what's driving mortgage rates, read the weekend edition of this daily rate report.
For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly down. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times last year.
The most recent weekly record low was on Jan. 7 when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed by extended periods of ups and downs. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, although not consistently.
Freddies 6th January Report puts that weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 3.22% (with 0.7 fees and points), high versus the 3.11% of the previous week. But that doesn't take into account some of the increases this week.
Mortgage rate forecasts by experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the real estate sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).
The figures in the table below refer to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on December 20th and the MBAs on December 21st.
Freddie's was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts quarterly. So we may not get another one of these until January. And his numbers are already looking stale.
forecasterQ4/21Q1/22Q2/22Q3/22Fannie Mae3.1%3.1%3.2%3.3%Freddie Mac3.2%3.4%3.5%3.6% MBA3.1%3.3%3.5%3.7%
However, with so many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.
Find your cheapest fare today
You should compare extensively no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“If you look after your mortgage, you can make real savings. It may not sound like much, however Saving even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
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Mortgage interest methodology
Every day, The Mortgage Reports receives interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We get an average interest rate and APR for each loan type shown in our chart. As we average a range of rates, you'll get a better idea of what you might find on the market. In addition, we calculate interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.