Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. It was the first autumn in more than a week. And it wasn't big enough to make much of a difference. But it was still welcomed and keeps those prices in the ultra-low range.
Later President-elect Joe Biden will present his "trillion-dollar" stimulus plans, which should raise mortgage rates. However, the morning's employment numbers were poor, which should drag them down. This conflict is the current rate scenario in the microcosm.
At the moment it looks like Mortgage rates today could be inches lower. But that could change over the course of the hours.
Find and lock a low rate (Jan 14, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional 5-year ARM
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (Jan 14, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Unfortunately, it is too early to determine the likely direction of mortgage rates for the coming weeks and months. So fluctuating your rate is still a game of chance. Read on for more information about the forces of conflict affecting interest rates.
In order to Mortgage rates could go up or down about the foreseeable (or rather unpredictable) future. But for now, my personal recommendations on tariff lock that are just my guesses are:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysHOVER when you approach 45 DaysHOVER when you approach 60 Days
With so much uncertainty right now, however, your instincts could easily prove to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 1.10% 1.11%. (Good for mortgage ratesMore than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were all higher When opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower. Oil prices remain stable at $ 52.75 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices decreased from $ 1,854 per ounce to $ 1,847. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates. CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Decreased from 70 to 68 from 100. (Good for mortgage interest.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this caveat, So far, mortgage rates are likely to fall somewhat today.
Find and lock a low rate (Jan 14, 2021)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
I expect mortgage rates will drop just a little today. But it's busy and that can change as the day progresses.
Here are the two conflicting forces that I pointed out earlier that affect mortgage rates:
1. Higher government bonds
Higher government bonds almost always lead to higher yields on US government bonds and mortgage rates. And it looks like we're facing seriously large deficits running into trillions of dollars.
President-elect Biden will announce his new administration's spending plans today. This should keep investors focused on the government bond tsunami that is about to hit the market. Because of this, mortgage rates are likely to rise overnight tonight. But then the second contradicting force intervened …
Because it's impossible to ignore the ongoing economic toll of the pandemic. After the first wave in the spring, the economy began to recover, although this was not enough to return to pre-COVID-19 levels.
However, the current second wave is even more deadly and economically damaging than the first. And bad economic times almost always bring low mortgage rates.
We saw how deep those scars are from last week's December employment data. And the worse than expected weekly new unemployment insurance claims (nearly a million) this morning reinforce that message. So far this morning, that bad news seems to outweigh the prospect of increased government borrowing.
Today is the ideal day to understand this conflict. Because we see it in real time.
So these are the contradicting and very powerful forces currently operating on mortgage rates. It is only possible that they cancel each other out. But it's likely more likely that an argument between the two will continue for several months, perhaps until vaccines finally turn the tide of the pandemic.
And events could create even more volatility. For example, a new, vaccine-related strain of the coronavirus could significantly reduce push rates. But even more demands on the public sector could push them higher.
So this uncertainty could last for a long time. And it can lead to unusual volatility.
Today is a good time to see this fight in action.
The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. A new weekly all-time low was set 16 times in the past year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent record of this species was on January 7th. However, this was already overtaken by the events before it was published. And rates are significantly higher now, as confirmed by Freddie's announcement today.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
Note, however, that fannies (published December 15th) and the MBA (December 21st) are updated monthly. But Freddies are now released quarterly. And the newest one was released on October 14th. So this looks downright stale.
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
However, these predictions were made before the Democratic Party swept both the Houses of Congress and the White House clean. And before the pandemic got even more virulent. Therefore, they can change more than usual this month. And with so much currently unknown, they can be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It might not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.