Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell last Friday. But by and large, nothing has changed over the course of the week. And recent diurnal movements have generally canceled each other out. But that's a good thing, because these rates remain extremely low.
Mortgage rates can go down a little today, measured by the early movements in the markets. But things can change during the day.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 30, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 30, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
As long as mortgage rates remain in the doldrums, there is little to worry about. It doesn't really matter whether you lock or unlock your rate. Because you are likely to win or lose little either way. But that can't last forever.
So you should be worried about what's next. And most experts expect increases, but differ in whether they will be small or large. One could rightly argue that experts are often wrong. And that could lead you to ignore their advice. That's fine as long as you understand the risks.
But for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time last Friday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield reduced from 1.34% to 1.30%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices fell to $ 68.28 from $ 68.76 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices rose to $ 1,816 $ 1,790 an ounce. (Good for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – increased from 50 to 57 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall slightly today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 30, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
With Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech last Friday, we can finally stop talking about tapering. But I'm afraid the subject will come back in a few weeks.
In the meantime, the markets remain difficult to read. Commentators claim investors are concerned about the economic consequences of a surge in the COVID-19 delta variant, which keeps bond yields and mortgage rates low. Yet the same investors celebrate when it comes to stocks. Over the weekend, Investopedia reported on last Friday's trading in an e-newsletter:
The S&P 500 closed above 4,500 points for the first time, while the Nasdaq climbed more than 1% and also reached an all-time high. The Dow rose more than 200 points, just 170 points from its best ever closing price. All three major averages ended the week in positive territory.
So how concerned can investors really be about the Delta option?
Last week, I covered an article in the New York Times about how banks are faced with overcrowded coffers and under-demand for credit. And that forces them to buy US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBSs, a type of bond that directly affects mortgage rates) when they'd rather not. To me, along with the massive purchases of both by the Fed, that sounds like a more compelling explanation for today's extremely low mortgage rates.
And if I'm right, we may have to wait for the Fed to start tapering its MBS purchases before mortgage rates go up or down much. However, this could happen as early as September 22nd, when the Fed holds the next press conference after a meeting of its monetary policy body, the Fed's Open Market Committee.
Nothing is safe
Of course, things can turn out differently. My analysis could be wrong. (No, really.) Or an economically important event could emerge from the left field that changes everything.
This Friday's monthly employment report is unlikely to change everything. But it's the foreseeable event on this week's calendar that is most likely to change a lot. Whether or not this is the case depends on the data it contains. So be aware that we are heading for it.
For more background information, see Saturday's weekend edition of this column. And the longer-term forecast of my colleague Tim Lucas, Mortgage Rate Forecast and Trends: Will rates fall in September 2021?
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases since April, albeit typically small. Freddie's August 26 report builds on this weekly average 2.87% (with 0.6 fees and points), high compared to 2.86% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and the MBAs were updated on August 19th. However, Freddies was last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his prognosis is already looking stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current projections could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (August 30, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, it will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.