Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell moderately last Friday. Other markets continued to plunge, suggesting lenders could catch up with lower rates this morning. That, however, depends on whether investors continue to be scared of the Omicron variant of COVID-19.
And there are signs that they may not be. So Mortgage rates could go higher today. But probably not as high as it was before the extraordinary events on Friday.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (29.11.2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Markets took a wild ride last Friday as the potential impact of the new Omicron variant shocked investors. But this morning there are signs that they may have overcome that shock.
I'm leaving my personal rate lock recommendations unchanged for now, as I suspect the chaos won't continue on Friday. But that is based on very little information. And if i were you I would not lock today.
But for now, these rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time last Friday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.52% to 1.56%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives the prices of those stocks down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices down from $ 72.87 a barrel to $ 72.56. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices decreased from $ 1,800 an ounce to $ 1,789. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Reduced from 42 from 100 to 40. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise moderately today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (29.11.2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top borrowers (with great credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the bulk of daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time. When daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and keep their price lists the same as for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
The fact is, no one knows how contagious and deadly the new variant of Omicron will be. Also whether existing vaccines offer a high level of protection against it. Nor how much economic damage it could do.
But overnight, markets around the world seemed to rethink last Friday's wilderness. And many recovered slowly, albeit well below last Thursday's levels. The same thing seemed to happen first on Wall Street.
This morning's Guardian featured a helpful article by Devi Sridhar, Professor and Chair of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland.
He said the scientists were waiting for three sets of data to see how concerned Omicron should be. The first two were indicators of how contagious it would be and how it would affect hospital stays and deaths. On the other hand, he wrote:
The third and most worrying source of data is Omicron's potential to undermine vaccine immunity. The bottom line is that this would not necessarily mean that our current vaccines against Omicron would no longer work. It would mean that they would be less effective in stopping the transmission – and, most worryingly, it would prevent people from going to the hospital and dying. This is based on a virological analysis of the sequencing of the Omicron genome, and we don't yet know what impact this will have on the real world. Companies like BioNTech who developed the Pfizer vaccine are already trying to gauge the impact of their vaccine on this variant.
– The Guardian: “How bad will the Omicron Covid variant be in the UK? Three things will tell us ”November 28, 2021
The professor suggested that scientists could theoretically deliver a new vaccine "within a few weeks" that was revised against Omicron. But of course it would take a tremendous public health effort, which will almost certainly take months, to embrace enough to make a real difference.
Omicron's economic impact
Many countries are now responding to the variant with new measures. Japan, Israel and Morocco have all sealed their borders. And several countries, including the US, have announced flight bans from southern Africa, where Omicron was first discovered.
That can prove to be a good idea. Two flights from South Africa with a total of around 600 passengers landed in the Netherlands over the weekend. Of these, 61 tested positive for COVID-19. And 13 out of 61 tested positive for the Omicron variant.
A Reuters report said last night that Omicron was found in Australia, Belgium, Botswana, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, France, Canada and South Africa at the time.
Fortunately, the United States has not yet made this list. But you may think that it will be soon.
Many countries are already stepping up their COVID-19 countermeasures, including stricter testing requirements for all international travelers and stricter mask requirements.
But as Devi Sridhar suggested in the Guardian, we still don't know enough for governments to make informed decisions. Are these sensible precautionary measures or knee-jerk overreactions?
Of course, if Omicron proves to be as deadly as some fear, we will likely see more lockdowns and economic damage both domestically and globally. And recovery could pause or even be thrown into reverse.
If that happened, mortgage rates would likely fall. In the meantime, the markets can generally be very volatile as good and bad news about Omicron has leaked from governments, academics, and news outlets.
Further background information can be found in the weekend edition of this daily report from Saturday.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.
Freddies November 24th Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.1% (with 0.7 fees and points), unchanged from the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on November 18th and the MBAs on November 22nd.
Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another one until January.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new price (November 29, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.