Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. At least this time around, we have a pretty good idea why. It was likely the disappointing weekly unemployment data from that morning.
There are no such dates this morning. and Mortgage rates are likely to rise moderately today. But, as always, there is a risk that markets will accelerate, slow down, or change direction within a matter of hours.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 23, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 year celebration year
Conventionally, 15 years of fixed year
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 23, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Yesterday's weekly Freddie Mac interest rate report put the average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 2.78% (with 0.7 fees and points). And that's in the immediate vicinity of the all-time low of 2.65%. So should you wait for it to hit (or maybe drop below) that record low?
I wouldn't blame you for trying. However, interest rate hikes are currently about as likely as falling interest rates. So it's a game of chance. And only three times in the entire 50-year history of Freddie's records were the monthly averages below 2.78%. So locking now would mean you are getting a historically amazing offer while avoiding the risk of higher interest rates.
Since I prefer discretion over bravery, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
That 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.27% to 1.30%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recentlyImportant stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lowerOil prices increased to $ 71.73 from $ 70.55 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices decreased from $ 1 to $ 1,797,799 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – edged to 31 from 28 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 23, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Was I unfair when it came to branding markets "irrational" and "emotional" about the sharp cuts in mortgage rates last week? I do not think so.
However, that doesn't mean the markets don't have good cause for some fears:
Infection rates for the delta COVID-19 variant are exploding in many large economies – as well as in emerging markets. And while vaccines offer good protection against hospitalizations and deaths, vaccination rates have stagnated disappointingly in the US and elsewhere. One consequence of the pandemic is a severe disruption in the supply chain that affects part of productivity. General Motors, for example, pauses the production of many of its full-size pickups for a week because there are not enough computer chips available. Other automakers in other countries face similar problems. And yesterday, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said that "it could take a year or two to get the semiconductor industry back on track," according to yesterday's weekly Wall Street Journal data on new unemployment claims insurance disappointingly high. Yes, weekly numbers are a bad guide. But there is no denying that we still have a way to go before we can replace all of the jobs lost in the pandemic
So yes. Markets should be afraid of how these issues will play out in the future. But they pretend it is already clear that the economic recovery will stutter and die. And that's just not the case. In fact, recent economic data suggests it will stay vibrant and strong.
If this data continues to be positive, it will be difficult to see how markets can maintain pessimism. And if and when their Damascus conversion to optimism arrives, mortgage rates are likely to go up.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small, in April and since then. Freddie's July 22nd report puts this weekly average at 2.78% (with 0.7 fees and points). Low from 2.88% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on July 19, Freddies on July 15, and the MBAs on July 21.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between each other are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (July 23, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, it will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.