Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates were stable yesterday. And that was a pleasant surprise because they seemed to be the first to rise again – and also because it had been a week since they last fell. Even so, they remain very low in all respects.
However this one Mortgage rates can go up today. As CNBC said earlier, “US Treasury bond yields continued to rise Tuesday morning as traders considered the possibility of further economic stimulus and the situation in US politics. “And mortgage rates often overshadow those returns.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jan 13, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional 5-year ARM
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jan 13, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Let's be honest I can do very little to help at the moment. because Mortgage rates could go either way in the coming days, weeks, and months. And with so much not known right now, making predictions is a breeze.
But I can explain what's going on. So read on to learn more about the competing forces trying to raise and lower these rates at the same time.
And right now, my personal recommendations on tariff blocking (my best guesses) are:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysHOVER when you approach 45 DaysHOVER when you approach 60 Days
With so much uncertainty right now, however, your instincts could easily prove to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is the current status at 9:50 a.m. (ET) this morning. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:
The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 1.17% 1.13%. (Bad for mortgage ratesMore than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were mixed When opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower. Oil prices rose from $ 52 to $ 73.73 $ 51.66 per barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices Inches higher to $ 1,845 of $ 1,839 per ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates. CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Up to 70 out of 61 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this caveat, So far, mortgage rates are likely to rise.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jan 13, 2021)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
I expect mortgage rates to rise today.
What are these competing forces trying to raise and lower mortgage rates at the same time?
Well, on the one hand is the pandemic. It is hard to overstate how detrimental this is to the health of the nation as well as the US and the global economy. Records for new infections, hospital stays and deaths are set almost daily. And we're just starting to see economic reports pointing to the financial devastation the second wave is wreaking.
Usually all interest rates – including those on mortgages – are low during bad economic times. And until last week, I confidently forecast lower mortgage rates for the months ahead.
More government spending
What has changed last week? Well, the Democratic Party got the White House, Senate and House clean. According to President-elect Joe Biden, "trillions" will be spent on stimulus measures.
But such spending will mean a huge increase in national debt. And that will inevitably increase the supply of US Treasuries significantly. Needless to say, increasing the supply of a product tends to lower the price. For bonds, however, lower prices always mean higher returns. Given that mortgage bonds compete with government bonds, and their interest rates tend to overshadow returns, they too will come under pressure to rise.
Will the downward pressure of the pandemic outweigh the upward pressure of additional borrowing? Or the other way around? Literally nobody knows.
We will of course monitor how this works out. And once a trend becomes clear, you'll be the first to know about it.
The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. A new weekly all-time low was set 16 times in the past year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent record of this species was on January 7th. However, this was already overtaken by the events before it was published. And the prices are now significantly higher.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
Note, however, that fannies (published December 15th) and the MBA (December 21st) are updated monthly. But Freddies are now released quarterly. And the newest one was released on October 14th. So this looks downright stale.
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
However, these predictions were made before the Democratic Party swept both the Houses of Congress and the White House clean. And before the pandemic got even more virulent. Therefore, they can change more than usual this month. And with so much currently unknown, they can be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It might not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (January 13, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.