Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates rose significantly yesterday. But that was a tiny increase from an all-time low. And this morning Freddie Mac said his weekly numbers suggest, "Mortgage rates remain at record lows."
For a while, these rates are likely to rise and fall in line with optimism and pessimism about the chances of a pandemic stimulus package in place. First thing this morning Mortgage rates are likely to fall slightly or remain stable. But that could change during the day.
Find and Block a Low Rate (December 10, 2020)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional 5-year ARM
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and Block a Low Rate (December 10, 2020)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Recently, my advice was to only lock your tariff if you are two or three weeks away from closing. Because I think there are more falls to come.
But mortgage rates are so extraordinarily low right now that no one could blame you for taking them while you can. After all, some temporary climbs are almost inevitable. And no one can guarantee how temporary these will be.
But I still think it's a reasonable bet that falls will outweigh the increases in the months to come. Once you are comfortable with the risk, consider floating for a while.
See “Are Mortgage and Refinance Rates Going Up or Down?” (Below) for more details. In the meantime, my personal recommendations on tariff blocking are:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysHOVER when you approach 30th DaysHOVER when you approach 45 DaysHOVER when you approach 60 Days
But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is the current status at 9:50 a.m. (ET) this morning. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 0.92% from 0.95%. (Good for mortgage ratesMore than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were lower when opened. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower. Oil prices rose from $ 46.05 per barrel to $ 46.72. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices fell from $ 1,858 an ounce to $ 1,852. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates. CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Postponed to 75 out of 85 out of 100. (Good for mortgage interest.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But so far they have been searching with this restriction OK for mortgage rates today.
Find and Block a Low Rate (December 10, 2020)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. So expect both short-term increases and decreases. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same for purchases. However, some types of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refinancing are currently significantly higher after a change in regulations
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
It looks like it does Mortgage rates today could easily fall or remain stable. And that's made all the more likely with this morning's weekly numbers for unemployment insurance claims. That's up to 853,000 from 716,000 last week. And then everyone found the lower number disappointing.
Further up, these prices are affected by events on Capitol Hill. And if a stimulus bill becomes more likely as the hours go by, that could soon change and rates are likely to get higher.
Congress has given itself respite over a government shutdown due to begin tomorrow evening. But it only kicked the can by a week. So that's another threat that hangs above rates. As usual, good news (the avoidance of a closure) should drive mortgage rates higher. Bad news might see them fall.
Meanwhile, Brexit (Britain's exit from its membership of the European Union) is back in the headlines. And Sunday is the new deadline (is that the 99th?) For a trade deal. Yes, in a global economy such events affect American mortgage rates. And "No-Deal" could see it fall.
However, all of these are minor considerations compared to the economic chaos the pandemic is wreaking. Yesterday, 3,000 Americans tragically died as a result of COVID-19, a gruesome all-time high.
And it's the economic fallout from this pandemic that leads me to believe that the ongoing declines are likely to outweigh the brief hikes in mortgage rates for a few more months.
The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low has been set 14 times this year. The last such record was set on December 3rd. This morning Freddie said, "Mortgage rates remain at record lows."
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the final quarter of 2020 (Q4 / 20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21 and Q3 / 21).
Note, however, that fannies (published November 17th) and the MBA (also November 17th) are updated monthly. However, Freddies are now released quarterly. The latest version was released on October 14th. So this is starting to look stale.
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
Q4 / 20
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
So the predictions vary considerably. You pay your money …
And another prognosis
On December 2nd, the National Association of Realtors threw its hat into the forecast ring. It said:
The forecast assumes that mortgage rates will slowly rise towards the end of the last half of 2021 and reach 3.4% by the end of the year.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It might not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (December 10, 2020)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.