Mortgage

Mortgage and refinance charges at this time, Could 18, 2021

Today's mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates were unchanged yesterday. After an increase in four out of five business days in the past week, that was a win.

This morning it looks like we have a repeat from yesterday. because Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or be just inches from the neutral line. Don't forget, however, that markets can gain momentum during the day.

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Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
Mortgage rates
APR *
change

Conventional set for 30 years
3.093%.
3.098%.
+ 0.03%

Conventional 15 years fixed
2.25%.
2,367%.
-0.03%

Conventional set for 20 years
2,781%.
2,873%.
Unchanged

Conventional 10 years fixed
1.924%.
2,101%.
-0.01%

Fixed FTA for 30 years
2,813%.
3.47%.
Unchanged

Fixed FTA for 15 years
2.529%.
3.13%.
+ 0.03%

5 years ARM FHA
2.5%.
3,201%.
Unchanged

30 years permanent VA
2,431%.
2.604%.
-0.07%

15 years fixed VA
2.25%.
2.571%.
Unchanged

5 years ARM VA
2.5%.
2,379%.
Unchanged

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.

Find and lock a low rate (May 18, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus is affecting your home loan, click here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

With mortgage rates near the highest point in last month, you might consider floating in hopes of further declines. But I would exercise caution.

Of course, such falls are possible. And occasional ones are likely. But overall, they seem a lot less likely than increases. Read on for why I think so.

So my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:

LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach fifteen DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days

However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

The Return on 10 year treasury increased from 1.64% to 1.65% (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were a shadow higher when opened. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lowerOil prices rose from $ 65.71 a barrel to $ 66.11. ((Bad for mortgage rates *.Energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and are also indicative of future economic activity. Gold prices rose from $ 1,854 per ounce to $ 1,869. ((Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Increased from 40 to 41 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And are usually right. However, our record for accuracy will not reach its former high level until things settle down.

Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged today or change little. Note, however, that intraday fluctuations (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

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Important information about today's mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Reading & # 39;How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?
Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today and so on

Before that, I made a promise to explain to you why I thought mortgage rates were going to rise rather than fall in the weeks and months to come. My reasons haven't changed in a while. At the risk of boring regular readers, here are the two most important ones:

Investor Fear of Future Inflation – Mortgage-backed securities are long-term fixed income bonds. And nobody wants them when a higher return could be available in a few weeks or months. The Boom Coming – The Federal Reserve is forecasting the fastest economic growth this year since the Reagan administration. And booms pretty much always bring higher mortgage rates

Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?

These two are powerful drivers. And if the economy stays on track, it seems almost inevitable that they will raise mortgage rates.

However, nothing is inevitable. And the economy could be hit by a new surge in COVID-19 or some other threat that is undermining the current recovery.

But right now, with higher rates, these two drivers look more likely to most observers. So, if you let your interest rate fluctuate, you only need to win if quite unlikely situations arise. And that's quite a gamble.

For more background information, see our latest weekend edition of this report.

Recently

For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.

However, those spikes were largely replaced by falls in April, though those have slowed since the middle of this month. Freddie's May 13 report puts this weekly average at 2.94% (with 0.7 fees and points). Low from 2.96% in the previous week. Note, however, that Freddie's methodology means that the big hikes this week were largely missed. And indeed, Rates were significantly higher until the release day on the last Thursday.

Mortgage rate forecasting experts

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).

The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Freddies updated on April 14th, Fannies updated on April 12th, and the MBA updated on April 22nd.

Forecaster
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22

Fannie Mae
3.2%
3.3%
3.4%
3.5%

Freddie Mac
3.2%
3.3%
3.4%
3.5%

MBA
3.4%
3.6%
3.7%
3.9%

However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions might be even more speculative than usual. However, if any of these forecasts are to prove correct, interest rates will have to rise rapidly at some point in the remaining six weeks of the current quarter (Q2).

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. You just need to shop broader.

But of course, whatever type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

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Mortgage rate method

The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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