Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. And they remain exceptionally low as they drift within the narrow range that has existed for several weeks.
Mortgage rates could stay stable today or fall again. But this prediction is based on early movements in the markets and these can change over the hours.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 31, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 31, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
The decline over the past few business days means mortgage rates remain firmly in the limited range they have been restricted to for weeks. Of course, you can break free at any time. But I don't see any reason for that, at least before Friday. And probably not then.
All of which means that now you will not win or lose by unblocking or banning your course. However, when rates break out, they move up rather than down.
My personal rate lock recommendations remain for the time being:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield reduced from 1.30% to 1.28%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were mostly lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices rose to $ 68.71 from $ 68.28 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices kept at $ 1,816 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – decreased from 57 to 53 From 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or fall slightly. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 31, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
Last Thursday, Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater wrote:
The tug-of-war between the economic recovery and rising COVID-19 cases has moved mortgage rates sideways in recent weeks. Overall, rates remain low, with a window of less than three percent for those who haven't refinanced.
Why did Mr. Khater mention a "window of opportunity"? Well, it's because he – like most professional mortgage rate watchers – thinks that when they finally break out of their current narrow range, they will go up.
Experts agree on how far and how quickly they will go up. But pretty much all of them think the movement will go up.
An excess of uncertainty
But even those who expect a sharp spike admit they can't be sure. At the moment, companies and the economy are doing extremely well. And we're on track for 2021, which will see the fastest economic growth since the Reagan administration. That alone would normally result in higher mortgage rates.
But this extraordinary recovery could still be derailed. Unexpected disasters are a constant threat to the markets, but they rarely occur. But the possibility of new varieties of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 is particularly worrying for many investors.
Some media are already reporting on such a new variant called C.1.2., Which was recently discovered in South Africa. And The Guardian today quoted Dr. Megan Steain, Virus Specialist and Lecturer in Immunology and Infectious Diseases at the University of Sydney Central Clinical School:
It (C.1.2.) Contains some key mutations that we see in other variants that have become interesting or worrying variants. Every time we see these particular mutations, we want to keep an eye on the variant to see what it will do. These mutations can, for example, affect whether they escape the immune response or are transmitted more quickly.
But dr. Stain went on to explain that it was far from certain that C.1.2. would prove dangerous. Indeed, she thought that "we are still at a point where this could become extinct, the prevalence is really low". She said.
With a little luck, new variants will actually die out before they catch on. But there is a clear danger that some will fail to do so and cause real harm. And that could disrupt the economic recovery, which would likely lead to a collapse in mortgage rates.
But most of us would rather live with higher mortgage rates than witness such a disaster given the choice. And luckily, our wish will come true.
For more background information, see Saturday's weekend edition of this column. And the longer-term forecast of my colleague Tim Lucas, Mortgage Rate Forecast and Trends: Will rates fall in September 2021?
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases since April, albeit typically small. Freddie's August 26 report builds on this weekly average 2.87% (with 0.6 fees and points), high compared to 2.86% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and the MBAs were updated on August 19th. However, Freddies was last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his prognosis is already looking stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current projections could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new price (August 31, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, it will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.