Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday and canceled the similar rise on Monday. And conventional loans started this morning at 3.063% (3.063% APR) for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.
I guess Mortgage rates will stay stable today or be an inch lower. Happy Thanksgiving for tomorrow! We then go on a date with a turkey. But we'll be back on Friday morning.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 26, 2020)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional 5-year ARM
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 26, 2020)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Even three times the dose of good news from yesterday (vaccine, transition and yellen for the Treasury Department) couldn't keep mortgage rates going for long. They started higher but moved lower during the day.
So I wouldn't lock today if I'm not about to close. And that's because I suspect that even lower rates are on the horizon.
See "Are Mortgage and Refinance Rates Going Up or Down?" (Below) for more. In the meantime, my personal recommendations on tariff blocking are:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysHOVER when you approach 30th DaysHOVER when you approach 45 DaysHOVER when you approach 60 Days
But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is the current status at 9:50 a.m. (ET) this morning. The dates, compared to roughly the same time last Friday morning, were:
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 0.86% 0.87%. (Good for mortgage rates because it fell after a spike yesterday.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, though less recentlyImportant stock indices were mixed when opened. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower. Oil prices rose to $ 45.37 starting at $ 44.28 per barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices rose from $ 1,799 an ounce to $ 1,813. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates. CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Climbed from 84 from 100 to 90. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this restriction they search slightly worse for mortgage rates today.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 26, 2020)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued Fed interventions in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. So expect both short-term increases and decreases. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is going on, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refinancing are currently significantly higher after a change in regulations
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
My best guess is that Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or be an inch lower. But that's based on my reading of the markets. And I misunderstood that yesterday, if only a little.
My mistake was assuming that yesterday's oversupply of good news would keep them high for longer. True, I said the good mood could only be "a matter of the day". However, it turned out that the time was even shorter.
Investors are more gloomy about trading US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities than they are when buying stocks. And they may be less affected by transient news events.
They know that even if all goes well, vaccines won't offer herd immunity until the latter half of 2021. And they also know that the American economy is facing serious and ongoing damage in the meantime, regardless of who is president or in the new administrative cabinet.
America has had 2 million new cases of COVID-19 in the past two weeks. And this morning's disappointing weekly numbers for new unemployment insurance claims suggest that the economic consequences are already evident.
This is grim news for all Americans except those who want lower mortgage rates. Because these rates tend to fall, economic conditions deteriorate.
The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. Freddie Mac said a new all-time low was set for each of the weeks ending October 15 and 22 and November 5 and 19. Last Thursday's record low was the 13th this year. And this morning Freddie said they'd been holding this week.
Note, however, that Freddie's numbers only relate to buying mortgages and ignore refinancing. And if you averaged both, the rates have been consistently higher than the all-time low since a record high in August. The gap between the two has been widened by a controversial regulatory change.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the final quarter of 2020 (Q4 / 20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21 and Q3 / 21).
Note, however, that fannies (published November 17th) and the MBA (also November 17th) are updated monthly. However, Freddies are now released quarterly. And its latest was released on October 14th.
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
ForecasterQ4 / 20Q1 / 21Q2 / 21Q3 / 21Fannie Mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Freddie Mac 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% MBA 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2%
So the predictions vary considerably. You pay your money …
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been made nervous by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (November 26, 2020)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.