Mortgage

Mortgage and refinance charges at the moment, January 12, 2022

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates moved moderately lower yesterday. While the news was obviously welcome, it hasn't detracted much from the big climbs we've been seeing lately. Of course, mortgage rates remain extraordinarily low by historical standards.

Previously, the markets suggested Mortgage rates today may remain stable or nearly so. But that could change as markets digest this morning's CPI data, which came in slightly warmer than expected.

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Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*
change

Conventional 30 years fixed
3,682%
3,705%
Unchanged

Conventional 15 year fixed
2.97%
3,004%
Unchanged

Conventional 20 years fixed
3,384%
3,424%
-0.12%

Conventional 10 year fixed
2,948%
3.02%
-0.01%

30 year solid FHA
3,696%
4.47%
+0.04%

15 year solid FHA
2,994%
3,645%
Unchanged

5/1 ARM FHA
2,871%
3.47%
+0.02%

30 years solid VA
3,448%
3,643%
-0.06%

15 years solid VA
3.234%
3,584%
+0.05%

5/1 ARM VA
2,955%
2,784%
+0.03%

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your tariff may vary. Click here for an individual price offer. See our rate assumptions here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

Has yesterday's modest fall in mortgage rates heralded the end of the sharp rises we've seen so far in 2022? Well it could be good. But I doubt it will start a sustained period of falls.

It is more likely that we will see less sharp rises punctuated by occasional dips. And for now, I expect mortgage rates to resume their gentle rise.

Therefore, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

LOCK when it closes 7 daysLOCK when it closes fifteen daysLOCK when it closes 30 daysLOCK when it closes 45 daysLOCK when it closes 60 days

>Related: 7 tips to get the best refinancing rate

Market data affecting today's mortgage rates

Here's a snapshot of the current status at around 9:50 am ET this morning. The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was:

the Yield on 10-year treasury bills fell from 1.77% to 1.74%. (Good for mortgage interest.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular government bond yieldsMajor Stock Indices were higher. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, pushing down their prices and raising yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationshipoil prices rose to $82.16 from $79.02 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity gold prices rose to $1,824 from $1,803 an ounce. (Good for mortgage interest*.) In general, interest rates are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates downCNN Business Fear & Greed Index — went from 52 to 100 to 66. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and switch to stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 in gold or 40 cents in oil is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Reservations on Markets and Courses

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still talk on the phone every day. And are mostly right. But our accuracy record won't reach its previous high level until things settle down.

Therefore, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat Mortgage rates are likely to be unchanged or nearly unchanged today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction throughout the day) are a common feature these days.

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Important information about today's mortgage interest rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it's troubled. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – although over time they all usually follow the broader trend. When daily interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as those for purchases.

There's a lot going on at the moment. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks, or months ahead.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today

Inflation is one of the top 3 issues that have pushed up mortgage rates this year. So this morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI (CPI adjusted for volatile food and fuel prices) reports for December are likely to catch investors' attention.

In fact, some numbers were slightly worse than expected. The CPI itself rose 0.5% in December, while analysts had forecast a 0.4% rise. But mortgage rates had barely reacted when we published this report.

General

You need to realize how fragile mortgage rate trends are these days. Currently, they are mostly driven by the Big 3 drivers I mentioned earlier, namely:

Uncomfortably high inflationOptimism about the mid- and long-term impact of the Omicron variant on the COVID-19 pandemic

Economic data — or science news about Omicron — that materially shifts markets' attitudes toward it could push mortgage rates up or down.

All I can do is try to predict what might happen to mortgage rates based on the current information on these Big 3 drivers. If this information changes, my advice will change as well.

However, it seems unlikely that inflation will abruptly cool down or that the Fed will reverse its plans. But everything could change if Omicron was optimistic.

For a longer look at what's driving mortgage rates, including why markets are bullish on Omicron, read the weekend edition of this daily rates report.

Recently

For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly down. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times last year.

The most recent weekly record low was on Jan. 7 when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed by extended periods of ups and downs. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, although not consistently.

Freddies 6th January Report puts that weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 3.22% (with 0.7 fees and points), high versus the 3.11% of the previous week. But that doesn't take into account some of the increases this week.

Mortgage rate forecasts by experts

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the real estate sector, and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).

The figures in the table below refer to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on December 20th and the MBAs on December 21st.

Freddie's was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts quarterly. So we may not get another one of these until January. And his numbers are already looking stale.

forecasterQ4/21Q1/22Q2/22Q3/22Fannie Mae3.1%3.1%3.2%3.3%Freddie Mac3.2%3.4%3.5%3.6% MBA3.1%3.3%3.5%3.7%

However, with so many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.

Find your cheapest fare today

You should compare extensively no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“If you look after your mortgage, you can make real savings. It may not sound like much, however Saving even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

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Mortgage interest methodology

Every day, The Mortgage Reports receives interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We get an average interest rate and APR for each loan type shown in our chart. As we average a range of rates, you'll get a better idea of ​​what you might find on the market. In addition, we calculate interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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