Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday, which upset my forecast. The only predictable thing about markets right now is their unpredictability.
That being said, there seems to be a good chance that Mortgage rates will fall again today, perhaps significantly. But of course that is anything but certain.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
The new Omicron variant of COVID-19 is likely to bring significant volatility in the markets. And that will likely be long before scientists can tell us how communicable and deadly it is – and how effective existing vaccines are likely to be against.
Until then, mortgage rates should move up and down according to the new findings. Good news about the likely effects of Omicron should be higher mortgage rates and bad news should be lower.
Today I am changing my personal rate lock recommendations to reflect Omicron's new situation. However, they can change again if data about the new variant become known. And don't be surprised if prices go up some days.
But for now, these rate lock recommendations are:
HOVER when close in 7th DaysHOVER when close in fifteen DaysHOVER when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days
> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield decreased from 1.56% to 1.43%. (Very good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were much lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives the prices of those stocks down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices down from $ 72.56 a barrel to $ 67.10. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity Gold prices rose from $ 1,789 per ounce to $ 1,798. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – decreased from 40 from 100 to 34. (Good for mortgage rates.) A week ago it was 64. And a month ago it was 72. “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and get into stocks, while “fearful” investors do so do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (11/30/2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top borrowers (with great credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the bulk of daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time. When daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and keep their price lists the same as for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
This morning the markets are troubled by an interview in today's Financial Times (Paywall). In it, Moderna boss Stéphane Bancel spoke about the effectiveness of existing vaccines against the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 compared to Delta and other variants:
I think there is no world where (this effectiveness) is on the same level. I think it will be a loss of material. I just don't know how much because we have to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've spoken to … say, "This is not going to be good."
– The Financial Times, "Moderna CEO Predicts Existing Vaccines Will Have Difficulty With Omicron," November 30, 2021
It's worth noting that not every virus expert would agree with the dire scenario that Mr. Bancel describes. And many believe that existing vaccines against the new strain are likely to be minimally less effective. In the meantime, as I reported yesterday, “within a few weeks” we could have newly developed vaccines that are effective against all known variants.
But the fears have not been allayed by the World Health Organization (WHO). AP reported yesterday:
The World Health Organization warned Monday that the global risk from the Omicron variant was "very high" based on early evidence and said the mutated coronavirus could lead to an increase with "serious consequences".
– AP, “WHO warns that a new virus variant poses a 'very high' risk”, November 29, 2021
Of course, we don't know for sure until we get more data. But markets hate uncertainty. And these responded poorly to reports of Mr Bancel's interview and the WHO statement, both globally and in the US.
Though not bad for mortgage rates. At first sight this morning it looked like today would be another good day for her.
However, expect volatility until scientists better understand the threats Omicron poses. Those rates are likely to fall if negative news like today's dominates. And get up when the news is better.
Other things than Omicron
Ordinarily, we would examine the economic reports out this week that could move mortgage rates. In particular, Friday's employment report, which has been the most important of those reports in a month recently.
But if the markets don't calm down before it's released, which seems unlikely, my guess is that is all but ignored in the Omicron hysteria.
Further background information can be found in the weekend edition of this daily report from Saturday.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.
Freddies November 24th Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.1% (with 0.7 fees and points), unchanged from the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on November 18th and the MBAs on November 22nd.
Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another one until January.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
And none of these forecasters suspected that Omicron could completely change the models on which they are based.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (November 30, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.