Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose yesterday and are at their highest level in several months. Still, they remain incredibly low compared to pre-pandemic standards.
It looks like it does Mortgage rates could go up today modest, supported by good numbers earlier for weekly jobless claims and orders for durable goods. However, other information that comes out later (see below) could change everything.
Happy Thanksgiving Day tomorrow! We'll be back on Friday.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
There is still little evidence that mortgage rates are falling in response to the daily increase in COVID-19 infections.
My personal rate lock recommendations remain for the time being:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.65% to 1.68%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices from $ 78.55 per barrel to $ 78.47. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices decreased from $ 1,790 an ounce to $ 1,783. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – downgraded from 60 from 100 to 57. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today a little bit. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (11/24/2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top borrowers (with great credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the bulk of daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time. When daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and keep their price lists the same as for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
After all the ups and downs of the past four weeks, mortgage rates were only a little higher last night than they were at the beginning of that period, according to the Mortgage News Daily archives. But MND says they're starting this morning at their highest level since April.
So overall they are drifting gently higher. However, as you'd expect, there have been many periods when they have fallen a little. Unfortunately, these are relatively short, flat, and unpredictable. So my rate lock recommendations have been on "lock" for several months.
Yesterday I was talking about a small avalanche of market sensitive information ”that will appear today. Overnight, The Guardian called it a "tsunami". Make your choice.
The Fed will publish at 2 p.m. (ET) the minutes of the last meeting of its monetary policy body, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. And investors will pore over these for evidence of future rate hikes. If they find one of these, mortgage rates could go up.
This morning also comes figures on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of this year. That sounds very important and it could be. But this is our first time reading these numbers and few expect much has changed since they were published.
It is more likely that core consumer spending by 10:00 a.m. ET this morning will move markets and mortgage rates. This is the core measure of inflation that the Fed pays the most attention to. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch expect an increase of 4.1% over the previous year. But if it's noticeably higher, mortgage rates could go up.
Tomorrow is Thanksgiving, of course. And the bond markets will be closed on that day as well as on Friday afternoon.
Many who affect the markets can extend their breaks by taking extra days today and Friday morning. So it may be that we have fewer and fewer experienced people setting mortgage rates and bond yields.
This can be done in two ways. They could be more active in showing their absent supervisors how capable they are. Or they play it safe and barely respond to messages. Past holidays offer little indication of which direction they will go this time around.
Overall, I still expect mortgage rates to rise. However, there is a real possibility that a new wave of COVID-19 will drag them down over the winter. How likely this is remains to be seen. Read more about it in the Monday edition of this article.
You can also read last Saturday's weekend edition for more general background information.
Recently – Updated today
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.
Freddies November 24th Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.1% (with 0.7 fees and points), unchanged from the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on November 18th and the MBAs on November 22nd.
Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another one until January.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.