Mortgage

Mortgage and refinance charges as we speak, October eight, 2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose yesterday. That means we haven't seen a fall since Monday. Nonetheless, these rates remain extraordinarily low by historical standards.

This morning's employment report disappointed many. And the markets seem uncertain which direction to jump in. But first signs suggest it Mortgage rates could go higher today. However, that could change if investors digest the job data.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 8, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*
Change

Conventional 30 years
3.161%
3.176%
Unchanged

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
2,484%
2,509%
Unchanged

Conventional 20 years old
3,011%
3,047%
+ 0.03%

Conventionally fixed for 10 years
2,428%
2,475%
+ 0.02%

30 years permanent FHA
3.158%
3,918%
+ 0.03%

Fixed FTA for 15 years
2,448%
3,051%
-0.11%

5/1 ARM FHA
2,425%
3,083%
+ 0.01%

30 years of permanent VA
2,955%
3,147%
-0.03%

15 years fixed VA
2,719%
3,068%
+ 0.01%

5/1 ARM-VA
2,508%
2,315%
Unchanged

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 8, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

With the debt ceiling expiring by early December, investors will focus on this morning's mediocre digit numbers. Will that be enough to delay further hikes in mortgage rates? Maybe. But I doubt it.

In fact, it seems to me that the range of likely influences on these rates trying to drive them up is much stronger than the forces trying to pull them down.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.56% to 1.60%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were mixed shortly after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices climbed to $ 79.62 from $ 76.61 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices raised from to $ 1,776 $ 1,757 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed IndexInches higher to 36 by 35 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 8, 2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today and so forth

This morning's employment report is arguably the most important of all economic reports in the current environment. So I would probably write about it no matter what.

But what matters today is that the Federal Reserve has signaled that this morning's report will be instrumental in deciding when to scale back (“shorten”) its “quantitative easing” (cheap money) program.

And that program has been probably the number one driver of low mortgage rates for the past 18 months. Because the Fed bought mortgage-backed securities (a type of bond whose yields largely determine mortgage rates) for $ 40 billion a month.

And it is almost certain that mortgage rates will rise if the Fed slowly turns off that faucet in the coming months.

Is this morning's mediocre employment numbers enough to postpone the reduction announcement that most expected after the next Fed policy meeting on November 3rd? Nobody can be sure.

And while I personally doubt it, it will be investor views on the matter that will ultimately determine what happens to mortgage rates. If enough agree with me, these prices can continue to rise. But if enough is convinced that the Fed will delay its tapering announcement, it would ease the upward pressure somewhat.

Sustainable increases now?

In any case, other forces seem to be driving rates up. From sustained declines in COVID-19 infection rates to overall data suggesting that the economic recovery is largely on the right track, the days of extremely low mortgage rates seem numbered.

That's not to say that these rates will go up in a straight line. There will inevitably be days and longer falls. I suspect, however, that the overall sustained trend will point upwards.

Of course, nothing is inevitable. And it is never impossible that a huge event unexpectedly occurs that disrupts everything. So you can never rule out lower prices. But to me these look a lot less likely than higher ones.

For more details on the Fed's actions and other influences on mortgage rates, see the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.

Recently

The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.

However, as of April, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. More recently, we've had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately September brought some strong climbs.

Freddies Oct 7 Report gives the weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages 2.99% (with 0.7 fees and points), Low compared to 3.01% the previous week.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking to the future, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs updated on September 22nd. But Freddies were last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.

Forecasters
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22

Fannie Mae
2.9%
2.9%
3.0%
3.1%

Freddie Mac
3.3%
3.4%
3.5%
3.6%

MBA
2.8%
3.1%
3.4%
3.6%

However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.

All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon, or pretty soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do. Or maybe Fannie thinks the tapering will have little effect.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Confirm your new plan (October 8, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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