Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday – further than likely first. Do you remember the big climb last Thursday? Well, movement has all but eliminated its effects since then.
At first this morning it looked like it Mortgage rates could rise higher or remain stable. For the past few days, however, the associated markets have been unreliable indicators of where mortgage rates are going. Treat this prediction with caution.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional set for 30 years
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set for 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (March 3, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus is affecting your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
After three working days of falling or stable mortgage rates, I'll soon be revising my recent pessimism.
But three days are really nothing when you evaluate the rate development. Therefore, my personal tariff blocking recommendations stay the same, although you can choose what you want:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
The Return on 10 year treasury rose to 1.48% of 1.43%. ((Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were mixed When opening. ((Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives down bond prices and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices have lower oil prices fell to $ 60.78 from $ 60.88 per barrel. ((Neutral for mortgage rates *). Energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and are also indicative of future economic activity.Gold prices fell from $ 1,725 an ounce to $ 1,710. ((Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Decreased from 64 to 54 from 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days may overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they need to be exceptionally strong (which means rates are likely to go up) or weak (which means they could go down) to be a reliable indicator.
But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise or remain stable today. Note, however, that intraday fluctuations (when prices change direction during the day) are common these days.
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Important information about today's mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on mortgage rates. But it can't always work miracles. Read "For once, the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. Here's why & # 39; if you want to understand this aspect of what is happening
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Reading & # 39;How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?
Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they typically all follow the broader trend over time
When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
I probably didn't have to tell you yesterday how terrible February had been for mortgage rates. And it should come as no surprise that March started with some corrections.
The question is: are we just looking at a short and shallow series of falls? Or is this the beginning of something sustainable and helpful?
Frankly, nobody can be sure. As you know, mortgage rates often weigh on 10-year government bond yields. And these are having a mini crisis right now.
This morning's Financial Times headlined, "The wobbling of government bonds is adding to health concerns in the $ 21 trillion market." And it called on US regulators to "address market function problems".
When such ignoramuses arise, my instinct is to be careful. But if you are more adventurous and take the risk of further falls, I cannot blame you. All you need to do is recognize the risk and be ready to act quickly if that downtrend suddenly fades.
For more background on how I continue to think, check out our latest weekend edition, which is published just after 10 a.m. (ET) every Saturday.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, new weekly all-time lows were hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7, 2021 when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.
But then the prices went up. Freddie's February 25 report puts that weekly average at 2.97% compared to 2.81% the previous week and its highest level since mid-2020.
Mortgage rate forecasting experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
Here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Fannies and MBA were updated on February 18th and 19th. But Freddie is now publishing quarterly forecasts and his numbers are from mid-January:
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions can be even more speculative than usual. And as the year goes on, the spread is sure to widen.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. You can probably still find the withdrawal refinance, investment home mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
Of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.