Mortgage and refinance charges as we speak, August 6, 2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose again yesterday. And they start this Friday just a little lower than last week at this time.

This morning's excellent employment report made 10 year Treasury note yields soaring. And that means almost certainly Mortgage rates will rise significantly today. But read on to find out why the surge may become less severe as the hours progress.

Find and lock a cheap rate (August 6, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*

Conventional 30 years
+ 0.05%

Conventionally fixed for 15 years

Conventional 20 years old

Conventionally fixed for 10 years

30 years permanent FHA
+ 0.01%

Fixed FTA for 15 years


30 years of permanent VA

15 years fixed VA

5/1 ARM-VA
+ 0.01%

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a cheap rate (August 6, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater wrote yesterday:

Given the global market uncertainty surrounding the delta variant of COVID-19, we saw 10-year government bond yields go down, and consequently mortgage rates to follow. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell back to its level in early 2021 and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage remained at its all-time low. This is a good sign for those who are still looking to refinance, renovate, or even buy a new home.

– Freddie Mac, “Mortgage Rate Cut,” August 5, 2021

You now have to decide whether you want to take advantage of these benefits by locking immediately or risking further falls by continuing to swim.

Of course, only you can make that decision. But my personal rate lock recommendations are:

LOCK when close in 7th Days
LOCK when close in fifteen Days
HOVER when close in 30th Days
HOVER when close in 45 Days
HOVER when close in 60 Days

However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

That 10 year Treasury note yield jumped from 1.21% to 1.29%. (Very bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recentlyImportant stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lowerOil prices climbed up $ 69.08 from $ 68.47 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices fell from $ 1 to $ 1,771,804 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Indexrose to 39 from 31 of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find and lock a cheap rate (August 6, 2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today etc

The official employment report contains arguably the most important economic data for each month. Lately, inflation reports have been vying for influence. But it's hard to overestimate how critical the employment numbers are to the economy, the country, and investors.

Typically, a good employment report calls for investors to sell bonds and buy stocks that are more profitable and less risky in good times. And that means that mortgage rates, which are largely determined by the returns on a type of bond called Mortgage Backed Security (MBS), are rising. Bond prices and bond yields move in opposite directions.

This morning's job report

And that is exactly what happened this morning, immediately after the July report was released at 8:30 a.m. (ET). It was much better than expected as the country added 943,000 jobs to its off-farm payrolls. Most analysts forecast between 845,000 and 870,000 new jobs this month.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% in June to 5.4% in July. And the average hourly wage rose by 0.4% as in the previous month. Andrew Ross Sorkin wrote hours before the numbers were published for the New York Times, exploring several alternative findings, including the following:

Strong employment growth and strong wage increases: That's great right now. The post-pandemic economy is in full swing and workers are reaping the rewards. But recovery is likely closer to the end than it is to the beginning. That jeopardizes ambitious government spending plans. The Fed could end its support sooner, potentially fueling market anger.

– NYT, DealBook e-newsletter, August 6, 2021

Why mortgage rates could only end up moderately higher today

The markets reacted as expected to this morning's excellent report: with significantly higher bond yields and thus higher mortgage rates. However, it is possible that the excitement could wane as the day progresses and those odds will rise less sharply until tonight. Where from?

Well, Aaron Ross Sorkin has already suggested a reason. Some investors believe that a good report could accelerate the Federal Reserve's plans to "cut back" (gradually) its purchases of mortgage-backed securities, which it currently spends $ 40 billion a month on. And to them, maintaining that support can be just as valuable as an economy that is in strong recovery.

Sometimes it takes a while for the markets to decide how to respond carefully to such news. So at 10 a.m. ET, there is very little for sure how mortgage rates will perform today.

For more background information, see Saturday's weekend edition of this column.

Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?


The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.

However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases since April, albeit typically small. Freddie's August 5th report puts this weekly average at 2.77% (with 0.6 fees and points). Low from 2.80% the previous week.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on July 19, Freddies on July 15, and the MBAs on July 21.

Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac


However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.

All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Confirm your new price (August 6, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, it will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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